Watford 1–2 Leicester: Result & Stats

Watford

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Leicester

E. Dennis 63'

Ricardo Pereira 55'

P. Daka 11' (pen)

2/10/2024

Championship · Round 31Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Watford35%

×Draw26%

Leicester38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchLeicester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.34

Watford

1.27

Leicester

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 19 away

1.27

creates per match

1.45

1.23

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Watford

1.27

Leicester

1.45

allows per match

Watford

1.23

Leicester

1.26

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

Watford-0.10scores less

Leicester-0.08on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Leicester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Watford or draw

62%

Watford or Leicester

74%

Draw or Leicester

65%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

15%

Leicester wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

72%

Watford 2+ goals

36%

Watford 3+ goals

14%

Leicester 1+ goals

74%

Leicester 2+ goals

39%

Leicester 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

48%

Leicester (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.23 · 46 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.27 + Leicester defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Leicester attack 1.45 + Watford defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Watford scores more

35%

level

26%

Leicester scores more

38%

Leicester at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

Ricardo Pereira

Leicester · M

7.7

Match Events

4'

M. Rajović← V. Bayo

11'

P. DakaPenalty

37'

Harry Winks

45+5'

Benjamin Nelson

55'

Ricardo Pereira↳ A. Fatawu

60'

E. Dennis← K. Sema

60'

Y. Asprilla← M. Rajović

61'

R. Andrews← Matheus Martins

62'

C. Doyle← B. Nelson

63'

E. Dennis

72'

T. Ince← G. Chakvetadze

72'

J. Vardy← P. Daka

75'

Ryan Porteous

82'

H. Choudhury← D. Praet

82'

S. Mavididi← A. Fatawu

90+5'

Wesley Hoedt

90+5'

Jamie Vardy

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordLeicester

Overview

48%Possession52%

13Total Shots6

1.12Expected Goals (xG)1.43

8Corners1

11Fouls15

Shots

13Total Shots6

3On Target3

5Off Target3

5Blocked0

6Inside Box3

7Outside Box3

Passing

48%Possession52%

447Total Passes508

385Accurate Passes438

86%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls15

2Yellow Cards3

6Offsides0

Championship: Watford 1–2 Leicester

Leicester beat Watford 2-1 in Championship on February 10, 2024.

Goals: P. Daka (11' pen), Ricardo Pereira (55'), E. Dennis (63').

Leicester controlled possession (52%) and registered 6 shots to 13.

The match was played at Vicarage Road in Watford.

Watford vs Leicester — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Watford 1–2 Leicester