Watford 0–0 Leicester: Result & Stats

Watford

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Leicester

3/21/2026

Championship · Round 39Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Watford37%

×Draw27%

Leicester37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchLeicester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

Watford

1.28

Leicester

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 6 away

1.26

creates per match

1.42

1.15

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Watford

1.26

Leicester

1.42

allows per match

Watford

1.15

Leicester

1.30

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

-0.42scores less than expected

finishing

Watford+0.24scores more

Leicester-0.42scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Leicester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Watford or draw

63%

Watford or Leicester

73%

Draw or Leicester

63%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

16%

Leicester wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

72%

Watford 2+ goals

37%

Watford 3+ goals

14%

Leicester 1+ goals

72%

Leicester 2+ goals

37%

Leicester 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

50%

Leicester (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.15 · 14 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.30 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.26 + Leicester defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.28

Leicester attack 1.42 + Watford defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Watford scores more

37%

level

27%

Leicester scores more

37%

Watford at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

E. Selvik

Watford · G

8.9

Match Events

12'

17'

42'

46'

54'

Abdul Fatawu Issahaku

61'

B. De Cordova-Reid← S. Mavididi

61'

D. Mukasa← J. James

66'

E. Bove← G. Chakvetadze

67'

N. Mendy← I. Louza

76'

M. Doumbia← L. Kjerrumgaard

80'

J. Aribo← O. Skipp

80'

B. Nelson← J. Lascelles

87'

V. Semedo← P. Ekwah

89'

J. Ayew← P. Daka

90+2'

Egil Selvik

90+1'

Mamadou Doumbia

90+2'

Bobby Decordova-Reid

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordLeicester

Overview

45%Possession55%

6Total Shots15

0.25Expected Goals (xG)2.22

7Corners4

13Fouls8

Shots

6Total Shots15

2On Target5

2Off Target6

2Blocked4

3Inside Box11

3Outside Box4

Passing

45%Possession55%

334Total Passes408

250Accurate Passes325

75%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

0.25Goals Prevented0.25

Discipline

13Fouls8

3Yellow Cards4

1Offsides3