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Watford vs Leicester — Premier League 2026

Watford
Watford
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
Leicester
Leicester
5/15/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 37Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

Watford35%
×Draw25%
Leicester40%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Watford
1.41
Leicester
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 114 home / 173 away

creates per match

Watford
1.20
Leicester
1.46

allows per match

Watford
1.58
Leicester
1.61

finishing

Watford+0.00on par
Leicester+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Leicester →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Watford or draw
60%
Watford or Leicester
75%
Draw or Leicester
65%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+
16%
Leicester wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals
76%
Watford 2+ goals
41%
Watford 3+ goals
17%
Leicester 1+ goals
78%
Leicester 2+ goals
45%
Leicester 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)
47%
Leicester (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.58 · 114 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.61 · 173 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.20 + Leicester defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.41

Leicester attack 1.46 + Watford defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Watford scores more
35%
level
25%
Leicester scores more
40%

Leicester at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Watford vs Leicester

Leicester beat Watford 5-1 in Premier League on May 15, 2022.

The match was played at Vicarage Road in Watford.