Leicester 2–0 Watford: Result & Stats

Leicester

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Watford

J. Vardy 90+5' (pen), 76'

11/25/2023

Championship · Round 17King Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Leicester42%

×Draw27%

Watford31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeicesterExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.09

Leicester

1.32

Watford

1.09

Leicester creates 21% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 47 away

1.28

creates per match

1.03

1.15

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Leicester

1.28

Watford

1.03

allows per match

Leicester

1.15

Watford

1.36

+0.46scores more than expected

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Leicester+0.46scores more

Watford-0.03on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Leicester or draw

69%

Leicester or Watford

73%

Draw or Watford

58%

Winning margin

Leicester wins by 2+

19%

Watford wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Leicester 1+ goals

73%

Leicester 2+ goals

38%

Leicester 3+ goals

15%

Watford 1+ goals

66%

Watford 2+ goals

30%

Watford 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Leicester (draw refunded)

58%

Watford (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.15 · 19 matches

Watford away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.36 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester attack 1.28 + Watford defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.32

Watford attack 1.03 + Leicester defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Leicester scores more

42%

level

27%

Watford scores more

31%

Leicester at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

J. Vardy

Leicester · F

8.3

Match Events

30'

Imrân Louza

54'

Ryan Porteous

55'

J. Vardy← K. Ịheanachọ

56'

A. Fatawu← K. McAteer

56'

I. Koné← J. Livermore

56'

G. Chakvetadze← I. Louza

62'

64'

67'

68'

72'

75'

76'

83'

84'

Y. Akgün← K. Dewsbury-Hall

84'

Matheus Martins← J. Lewis

84'

90+3'

90'

90+3'

90+5'

J. VardyPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeicesterWatford

Overview

65%Possession35%

23Total Shots9

2.88Expected Goals (xG)0.54

6Corners2

5Fouls14

Shots

23Total Shots9

8On Target1

10Off Target5

5Blocked3

16Inside Box4

7Outside Box5

Passing

65%Possession35%

636Total Passes334

568Accurate Passes258

89%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

5Fouls14

2Yellow Cards7

0Red Cards1

4Offsides3

Match Recap: Leicester vs Watford

Leicester beat Watford 2-0 in Championship on November 25, 2023.

Goals: J. Vardy (76', 90+5' pen).

Leicester controlled possession (65%) and registered 23 shots to 9.

The match was played at King Power Stadium in Leicester, Leicestershire.

Leicester vs Watford — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Leicester vs Watford