Leicester 1–2 Watford: Result & Stats

Leicester

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Watford

J. James 7'

M. Pollock 65'

O. Maamma 45'

12/26/2025

Championship · Round 23King Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Leicester34%

×Draw29%

Watford37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeicesterExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.15

Leicester

1.08

Watford

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

0.95

creates per match

1.03

1.26

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Leicester

0.95

Watford

1.03

allows per match

Leicester

1.26

Watford

1.22

+0.91scores more than expected

finishing

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

Leicester+0.91scores more

Watford+0.33scores more

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Leicester or draw

63%

Leicester or Watford

71%

Draw or Watford

66%

Winning margin

Leicester wins by 2+

13%

Watford wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Leicester 1+ goals

66%

Leicester 2+ goals

29%

Leicester 3+ goals

10%

Watford 1+ goals

68%

Watford 2+ goals

32%

Watford 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Leicester (draw refunded)

48%

Watford (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.26 · 7 matches

Watford away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.22 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester attack 0.95 + Watford defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.08

Watford attack 1.03 + Leicester defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Leicester scores more

34%

level

29%

Watford scores more

37%

Watford at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

I. Louza

Watford · M

8.5

Match Events

7'

J. James↳ J. Ayew

19'

Abdul Fatawu Issahaku

42'

45'

48'

61'

63'

65'

66'

N. Irankunda← T. Ince

69'

J. Monga← S. Mavididi

75'

A. Ramsey← B. De Cordova-Reid

81'

M. Sissoko← O. Maamma

81'

V. Semedo← L. Kjerrumgaard

87'

H. Choudhury← O. Skipp

87'

S. Thomas← R. Pereira

90+1'

J. Morris← G. Chakvetadze

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeicesterWatford

Overview

51%Possession49%

9Total Shots13

0.43Expected Goals (xG)1.40

5Corners6

14Fouls8

Shots

9Total Shots13

2On Target3

5Off Target5

2Blocked5

4Inside Box7

5Outside Box6

Passing

51%Possession49%

458Total Passes448

387Accurate Passes382

84%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

-0.76Goals Prevented-0.76

Discipline

14Fouls8

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1

Championship: Leicester 1–2 Watford

Watford beat Leicester 2-1 in Championship on December 26, 2025.

Goals: J. James (7'), O. Maamma (45'), M. Pollock (65').

Leicester controlled possession (51%) and registered 9 shots to 13.

The match was played at King Power Stadium in Leicester.

Leicester vs Watford — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Leicester 1–2 Watford