Waalwijk 1–2 VVV Venlo: Result & Stats

Waalwijk

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

VVV Venlo

J. Uneken 89'

B. van Zijl 90'

J. Eijgenraam 56'

12/5/2025

Eerste Divisie · Round 19Mandemakers Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Waalwijk45%

×Draw22%

VVV Venlo33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WaalwijkExpected goals in this matchVVV Venlo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.65

Waalwijk

1.96

VVV Venlo

1.65

Waalwijk creates 19% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

2.05

creates per match

1.72

1.57

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Waalwijk

2.05

VVV Venlo

1.72

allows per match

Waalwijk

1.57

VVV Venlo

1.87

+0.04on par

finishing

-0.52scores less than expected

finishing

Waalwijk+0.04on par

VVV Venlo-0.52scores less

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waalwijk ↓

VVV Venlo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Waalwijk or draw

67%

Waalwijk or VVV Venlo

78%

Draw or VVV Venlo

55%

Winning margin

Waalwijk wins by 2+

25%

VVV Venlo wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Waalwijk 1+ goals

86%

Waalwijk 2+ goals

58%

Waalwijk 3+ goals

31%

VVV Venlo 1+ goals

81%

VVV Venlo 2+ goals

49%

VVV Venlo 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Waalwijk (draw refunded)

58%

VVV Venlo (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waalwijk at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.57 · 11 matches

VVV Venlo away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.87 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waalwijk attack 2.05 + VVV Venlo defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.96

VVV Venlo attack 1.72 + Waalwijk defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Waalwijk scores more

45%

level

22%

VVV Venlo scores more

33%

Waalwijk at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Waalwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

J. Uneken

Waalwijk · F

8.0

Match Events

15'

Roshon van Eijma

27'

Mohammed Odriss

31'

Gabin Blancquart

46'

T. van der Leij← G. Roemeratoe

46'

M. Davis← S. Mokono

51'

H. Kuster← B. Zorgdrager

56'

J. Eijgenraam↳ M. Odriss

63'

B. van Zijl← L. Kromah

64'

R. Kuijpers← D. Cleonise

74'

Michael Davis

76'

N. Foor← L. Wehmeyer

76'

D. Zandbergen← D. van Oorschot

81'

R. van der Venne← D. van Kaam

81'

M. Kramer← C. Lokesa

82'

Jordi Altena

85'

T. Reinders← N. Ait Mouhou

89'

J. Uneken↳ J. Familia-Castillo

90+7'

Bjorn van Zijl

90+4'

Bjorn van Zijl

90+7'

Bjorn van Zijl

90'

B. van Zijl↳ D. Zandbergen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WaalwijkVVV

Overview

62%Possession38%

24Total Shots10

8Corners3

8Fouls13

Shots

24Total Shots10

6On Target2

13Off Target3

5Blocked5

14Inside Box7

10Outside Box3

Passing

62%Possession38%

506Total Passes325

432Accurate Passes237

85%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

8Fouls13

2Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

2Offsides2

Eerste Divisie: Waalwijk 1–2 VVV Venlo

VVV Venlo beat Waalwijk 2-1 in Eerste Divisie on December 5, 2025.

Goals: J. Eijgenraam (56'), J. Uneken (89'), B. van Zijl (90').

Waalwijk controlled possession (62%) and registered 24 shots to 10.

The match was played at Mandemakers Stadion in Waalwijk.

Waalwijk vs VVV Venlo — Eerste Divisie 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eerste Divisie: Waalwijk 1–2 VVV Venlo