Waalwijk 3–2 VVV Venlo: Result & Stats | Eredivisie

Waalwijk

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

VVV Venlo

L. Daneels 87'

A. Touba 75'

F. Stokkers 30'

V. van Crooij 51'

G. Giakoumakis 35' (pen)

12/5/2020

Eredivisie · Round 11Mandemakers Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Waalwijk50%

×Draw22%

VVV Venlo27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WaalwijkExpected goals in this matchVVV Venlo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.36

Waalwijk

1.91

VVV Venlo

1.36

Waalwijk creates 40% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 45 away

1.33

creates per match

1.18

1.54

allows per match

2.49

creates per match

Waalwijk

1.33

VVV Venlo

1.18

allows per match

Waalwijk

1.54

VVV Venlo

2.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Waalwijk+0.00on par

VVV Venlo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waalwijk ↓

VVV Venlo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Waalwijk or draw

73%

Waalwijk or VVV Venlo

78%

Draw or VVV Venlo

50%

Winning margin

Waalwijk wins by 2+

28%

VVV Venlo wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Waalwijk 1+ goals

85%

Waalwijk 2+ goals

57%

Waalwijk 3+ goals

30%

VVV Venlo 1+ goals

74%

VVV Venlo 2+ goals

39%

VVV Venlo 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Waalwijk (draw refunded)

65%

VVV Venlo (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waalwijk at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.54 · 96 matches

VVV Venlo away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.49 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waalwijk attack 1.33 + VVV Venlo defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 1.91

VVV Venlo attack 1.18 + Waalwijk defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Waalwijk scores more

50%

level

22%

VVV Venlo scores more

27%

Waalwijk at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Waalwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

A. Tahiri

Waalwijk · M

8.2

Match Events

26'

Roy Gelmi

28'

Danny Post

30'

F. Stokkers↳ A. Tahiri

35'

G. GiakoumakisPenalty

51'

V. van Crooij↳ S. Schäfer

52'

55'

55'

59'

60'

S. van Dijck← J. Arias

62'

T. Lutonda← P. Quasten

63'

L. Daneels← C. Ngonge

69'

Ahmed Touba

73'

V. Damaşcan← O. John

73'

S. Janssen← E. Linthorst

73'

G. Hupperts← T. Hunte

75'

A. Touba↳ R. van der Venne

87'

L. Daneels↳ V. Damaşcan

90'

Zinédine Machach

90'

H. Mulder← F. Stokkers

90+1'

Z. Machach← S. Schäfer

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WaalwijkVVV

Overview

59%Possession41%

25Total Shots10

6Corners0

14Fouls11

Shots

25Total Shots10

10On Target6

8Off Target4

7Blocked0

16Inside Box6

9Outside Box4

Passing

59%Possession41%

493Total Passes348

397Accurate Passes249

81%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

4Saves7

Discipline

14Fouls11

3Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

2Offsides2