VVV Venlo 0–3 Waalwijk: Result & Stats

VVV Venlo

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Waalwijk

T. van der Leij 76'

R. Fage 68'

H. Kuster 62'

3/6/2026

Eerste Divisie · Round 30Seacon - De Koel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

VVV Venlo32%

×Draw22%

Waalwijk46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VVV VenloExpected goals in this matchWaalwijk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.89

VVV Venlo

1.56

Waalwijk

1.89

Waalwijk creates 21% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

2.15

creates per match

1.97

1.81

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

VVV Venlo

2.15

Waalwijk

1.97

allows per match

VVV Venlo

1.81

Waalwijk

0.98

-1.27scores less than expected

finishing

+0.53scores more than expected

finishing

VVV Venlo-1.27scores less

Waalwijk+0.53scores more

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VVV Venlo ↓

Waalwijk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

VVV Venlo or draw

54%

VVV Venlo or Waalwijk

78%

Draw or Waalwijk

68%

Winning margin

VVV Venlo wins by 2+

15%

Waalwijk wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

VVV Venlo 1+ goals

79%

VVV Venlo 2+ goals

46%

VVV Venlo 3+ goals

21%

Waalwijk 1+ goals

85%

Waalwijk 2+ goals

56%

Waalwijk 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

VVV Venlo (draw refunded)

41%

Waalwijk (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VVV Venlo at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.81 · 8 matches

Waalwijk away — creates 1.97, concedes 0.98 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VVV Venlo attack 2.15 + Waalwijk defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.56

Waalwijk attack 1.97 + VVV Venlo defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

VVV Venlo scores more

32%

level

22%

Waalwijk scores more

46%

Waalwijk at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Waalwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

R. Fage

Waalwijk · M

8.5

Match Events

46'

L. de Blok← P. Heise

46'

N. Ait Mouhou← L. Wehmeyer

62'

H. Kuster↳ R. Fage

67'

B. van Zijl← L. Kromah

68'

R. Fage

75'

J. Boetius← D. Cleonise

75'

Y. van der Veen← H. Kuster

75'

T. van der Leij← J. Uneken

76'

T. van der Leij↳ Y. van der Veen

79'

D. van Kaam← R. Fage

81'

J. Kluskens← D. van Oorschot

81'

G. Blancquart← T. Joosten

87'

R. van Hedel← L. Postma

90'

Roshon van Eijma

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VVVWaalwijk

Overview

45%Possession55%

7Total Shots24

0.60Expected Goals (xG)2.95

1Corners3

12Fouls7

Shots

7Total Shots24

0On Target8

3Off Target9

4Blocked7

4Inside Box21

3Outside Box3

Passing

45%Possession55%

385Total Passes456

300Accurate Passes374

78%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

5Saves0

Discipline

12Fouls7

0Yellow Cards1

3Offsides0