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Waalwijk vs VVV Venlo — Eredivisie 2026

Waalwijk
Waalwijk
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
VVV Venlo
VVV Venlo
E. Hansson 15'
O. Darfalou 82'
J. Opoku 76'
1/25/2020EredivisieEredivisie · Round 20Mandemakers Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Waalwijk50%
×Draw22%
VVV Venlo27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Waalwijk
1.91
VVV Venlo
1.36

Waalwijk creates 40% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 45 away

creates per match

Waalwijk
1.33
VVV Venlo
1.18

allows per match

Waalwijk
1.54
VVV Venlo
2.49

finishing

Waalwijk+0.00on par
VVV Venlo+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waalwijk ↓

VVV Venlo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Waalwijk or draw
73%
Waalwijk or VVV Venlo
78%
Draw or VVV Venlo
50%

Winning margin

Waalwijk wins by 2+
28%
VVV Venlo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Waalwijk 1+ goals
85%
Waalwijk 2+ goals
57%
Waalwijk 3+ goals
30%
VVV Venlo 1+ goals
74%
VVV Venlo 2+ goals
39%
VVV Venlo 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Waalwijk (draw refunded)
65%
VVV Venlo (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waalwijk at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.54 · 96 matches

VVV Venlo away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.49 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waalwijk attack 1.33 + VVV Venlo defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 1.91

VVV Venlo attack 1.18 + Waalwijk defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Waalwijk scores more
50%
level
22%
VVV Venlo scores more
27%

Waalwijk at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Waalwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
J. OpokuVVV VenloVVV Venlo · F
7.9

Match Events

15'
E. Hansson
35'
Lee Cattermole
36'
Richard van der Venne
57'
D. Post← L. Cattermole
67'
J. Yeboah← P. van Ooijen
72'
Danny Post
72'
D. Vente← M. Bilate
76'
J. Opoku
82'
O. Darfalou↳ S. Janssen
86'
D. Maatsen← C. Leemans
87'
S. van Dijck← S. Janssen
90'
Sylla Sow

Possession

57%Waalwijk

Shots

12Waalwijk

Pass accuracy

51%Waalwijk

Statistics

WaalwijkVVV
Overview
57%Possession43%
12Total Shots13
3Corners5
11Fouls10
Shots
12Total Shots13
4On Target6
2Off Target3
6Blocked4
4Inside Box10
8Outside Box3
Passing
57%Possession43%
468Total Passes352
349Accurate Passes249
75%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls10
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides3

Match Recap: Waalwijk vs VVV Venlo

VVV Venlo beat Waalwijk 2-1 in Eredivisie on January 25, 2020.

Goals: E. Hansson (15'), J. Opoku (76'), O. Darfalou (82').

Waalwijk controlled possession (57%) and registered 12 shots to 13.

The match was played at Mandemakers Stadion in Waalwijk.