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VVV Venlo vs Waalwijk — Eredivisie 2026

VVV Venlo
VVV Venlo
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Waalwijk
Waalwijk
V. van Crooij 79'
J. John 44'
G. Giakoumakis 3'
C. Ngonge 84' (pen), 33'
T. Oosting 14'
5/8/2021EredivisieEredivisie · Round 32Covebo Stadion - De Koel -

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

VVV Venlo42%
×Draw23%
Waalwijk34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VVV Venlo
1.69
Waalwijk
1.50

VVV Venlo creates 13% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 97 away

creates per match

VVV Venlo
1.27
Waalwijk
1.05

allows per match

VVV Venlo
1.96
Waalwijk
2.11

finishing

VVV Venlo+0.00on par
Waalwijk+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VVV Venlo ↓

Waalwijk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

VVV Venlo or draw
66%
VVV Venlo or Waalwijk
77%
Draw or Waalwijk
58%

Winning margin

VVV Venlo wins by 2+
22%
Waalwijk wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

VVV Venlo 1+ goals
82%
VVV Venlo 2+ goals
50%
VVV Venlo 3+ goals
24%
Waalwijk 1+ goals
78%
Waalwijk 2+ goals
44%
Waalwijk 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

VVV Venlo (draw refunded)
55%
Waalwijk (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VVV Venlo at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.96 · 48 matches

Waalwijk away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.11 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VVV Venlo attack 1.27 + Waalwijk defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.69

Waalwijk attack 1.05 + VVV Venlo defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

VVV Venlo scores more
42%
level
23%
Waalwijk scores more
34%

VVV Venlo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "VVV Venlo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
V. van CrooijVVV VenloVVV Venlo · F
8.7

Match Events

3'
G. Giakoumakis↳ V. van Crooij
14'
T. Oosting↳ A. Touba
28'
Sylla Sow
33'
C. Ngonge↳ R. van der Venne
44'
J. John↳ V. van Crooij
59'
Kristopher Da Graca
60'
F. Stokkers← S. Sow
66'
L. Schmitz← L. Guwara
72'
S. Augustijns← A. Tahiri
74'
T. Hunte← J. John
74'
Y. Roemer← S. Janssen
79'
V. van Crooij↳ L. Schmitz
84'
C. NgongePenalty
85'
J. Arias← Z. Machach
88'
H. Mulder← R. van der Venne
88'
O. John← T. Oosting
88'
L. Daneels← C. Ngonge
90'
Vito van Crooy

Possession

50%VVV

Shots

13VVV

Pass accuracy

48%VVV

Statistics

VVVWaalwijk
Overview
50%Possession50%
13Total Shots14
6Corners4
17Fouls11
Shots
13Total Shots14
5On Target5
3Off Target6
5Blocked3
11Inside Box8
2Outside Box6
Passing
50%Possession50%
405Total Passes404
280Accurate Passes298
69%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
17Fouls11
2Yellow Cards1
4Offsides1

Match Recap: VVV Venlo vs Waalwijk

VVV Venlo and Waalwijk drew 3-3 in Eredivisie on May 8, 2021.

Goals: G. Giakoumakis (3'), T. Oosting (14'), C. Ngonge (33', 84' pen), J. John (44'), V. van Crooij (79').

VVV Venlo controlled possession (50%) and registered 13 shots to 14.

The match was played at Covebo Stadion - De Koel - in Venlo.