Waalwijk 3–1 Heerenveen: Result & Stats

Waalwijk

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Heerenveen

C. Lokesa 79'

Y. Oukili 75'

R. Margaret 10'

I. Nicolăescu 36' (pen)

5/10/2025

Eredivisie · Round 32Mandemakers Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Waalwijk41%

×Draw24%

Heerenveen35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WaalwijkExpected goals in this matchHeerenveen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.45

Waalwijk

1.61

Heerenveen

1.45

Waalwijk creates 11% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 136 away

1.33

creates per match

1.34

1.55

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Waalwijk

1.33

Heerenveen

1.34

allows per match

Waalwijk

1.55

Heerenveen

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Waalwijk+0.00on par

Heerenveen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waalwijk ↓

Heerenveen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Waalwijk or draw

65%

Waalwijk or Heerenveen

76%

Draw or Heerenveen

59%

Winning margin

Waalwijk wins by 2+

21%

Heerenveen wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Waalwijk 1+ goals

80%

Waalwijk 2+ goals

48%

Waalwijk 3+ goals

22%

Heerenveen 1+ goals

77%

Heerenveen 2+ goals

42%

Heerenveen 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Waalwijk (draw refunded)

55%

Heerenveen (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waalwijk at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.55 · 98 matches

Heerenveen away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.90 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waalwijk attack 1.33 + Heerenveen defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.61

Heerenveen attack 1.34 + Waalwijk defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Waalwijk scores more

41%

level

24%

Heerenveen scores more

35%

Waalwijk at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Waalwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

C. Lokesa

Waalwijk · M

8.3

Match Events

10'

R. Margaret

16'

A. Condé← M. Linday

36'

I. NicolăescuPenalty

43'

Oliver Braude

55'

Ilias SebaouiCard upgrade

56'

Ilias Sebaoui

67'

M. Luković← J. Trenskow

71'

Liam van Gelderen

72'

C. Lokesa← O. Zawada

72'

G. Roemeratoe← T. van de Loo

72'

M. Kramer← R. van Eijma

74'

K. Jansen← I. Nicolăescu

75'

Y. Oukili↳ C. Lokesa

79'

C. Lokesa↳ J. Familia-Castillo

80'

Chris Lokesa

87'

P. Vroegh← Y. Oukili

87'

D. Cleonise← M. Ihattaren

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WaalwijkHeerenveen

Overview

50%Possession50%

18Total Shots3

1.34Expected Goals (xG)0.91

5Corners2

10Fouls11

Shots

18Total Shots3

6On Target1

4Off Target0

8Blocked2

11Inside Box2

7Outside Box1

Passing

50%Possession50%

398Total Passes400

331Accurate Passes330

83%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

-0.42Goals Prevented-0.42

Discipline

10Fouls11

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

2Offsides1

Eredivisie: Waalwijk 3–1 Heerenveen

Waalwijk beat Heerenveen 3-1 in Eredivisie on May 10, 2025.

Goals: R. Margaret (10'), I. Nicolăescu (36' pen), Y. Oukili (75'), C. Lokesa (79').

Waalwijk controlled possession (50%) and registered 18 shots to 3.

The match was played at Mandemakers Stadion in Waalwijk.

Waalwijk vs Heerenveen — Eredivisie 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eredivisie: Waalwijk 3–1 Heerenveen