Heerenveen 3–1 Waalwijk: Result & Stats

Heerenveen

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Waalwijk

O. Sahraoui 43'

P. Bochniewicz 30'

I. Nicolăescu 24'

M. Kramer 60' (pen)

8/12/2023

Eredivisie · Round 1Abe Lenstra Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Heerenveen38%

×Draw25%

Waalwijk37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HeerenveenExpected goals in this matchWaalwijk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.46

Heerenveen

1.48

Waalwijk

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 5 away

1.78

creates per match

1.70

1.22

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Heerenveen

1.78

Waalwijk

1.70

allows per match

Heerenveen

1.22

Waalwijk

1.19

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

-0.50scores less than expected

finishing

Heerenveen+0.11scores more

Waalwijk-0.50scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heerenveen ↓

Waalwijk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Heerenveen or draw

63%

Heerenveen or Waalwijk

75%

Draw or Waalwijk

62%

Winning margin

Heerenveen wins by 2+

18%

Waalwijk wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Heerenveen 1+ goals

77%

Heerenveen 2+ goals

43%

Heerenveen 3+ goals

19%

Waalwijk 1+ goals

77%

Waalwijk 2+ goals

43%

Waalwijk 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Heerenveen (draw refunded)

51%

Waalwijk (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heerenveen at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

Waalwijk away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.19 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heerenveen attack 1.78 + Waalwijk defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.48

Waalwijk attack 1.70 + Heerenveen defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Heerenveen scores more

38%

level

25%

Waalwijk scores more

37%

Heerenveen at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Heerenveen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

P. Bochniewicz

Heerenveen · D

7.9

Match Events

24'

I. Nicolăescu↳ S. Olsson

30'

P. Bochniewicz↳ T. Haye

43'

O. Sahraoui↳ A. Tahiri

60'

M. KramerPenalty

61'

D. Karlsbakk← I. Nicolăescu

64'

J. Bruma← D. Van den Buijs

64'

C. Lokesa← G. Roemeratoe

71'

D. Hall← Hussein Ali Haidar

71'

R. Margaret← D. Cleonise

79'

Kevin Felida

84'

P. Vroegh← J. Lelieveld

84'

R. Meir← T. Lutonda

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HeerenveenWaalwijk

Overview

46%Possession54%

19Total Shots13

1.25Expected Goals (xG)2.22

7Corners2

9Fouls8

Shots

19Total Shots13

9On Target5

8Off Target7

2Blocked1

11Inside Box7

8Outside Box6

Passing

46%Possession54%

402Total Passes468

346Accurate Passes406

86%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

9Fouls8

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1

Eredivisie: Heerenveen 3–1 Waalwijk

Heerenveen beat Waalwijk 3-1 in Eredivisie on August 12, 2023.

Goals: I. Nicolăescu (24'), P. Bochniewicz (30'), O. Sahraoui (43'), M. Kramer (60' pen).

Waalwijk controlled possession (54%) and registered 13 shots to 19.

The match was played at Abe Lenstra Stadion in Heerenveen.

Heerenveen vs Waalwijk — Eredivisie 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eredivisie: Heerenveen 3–1 Waalwijk