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Heerenveen vs Waalwijk — Eredivisie 2026

Heerenveen
Heerenveen
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Waalwijk
Waalwijk
L. Smans 27'
M. Ihattaren 90+1' (pen)
11/29/2024EredivisieEredivisie · Round 14Abe Lenstra Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Heerenveen50%
×Draw23%
Waalwijk27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heerenveen
1.83
Waalwijk
1.27

Heerenveen creates 44% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 98 away

creates per match

Heerenveen
1.53
Waalwijk
1.04

allows per match

Heerenveen
1.50
Waalwijk
2.12

finishing

Heerenveen+0.00on par
Waalwijk+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heerenveen ↓

Waalwijk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Heerenveen or draw
73%
Heerenveen or Waalwijk
77%
Draw or Waalwijk
50%

Winning margin

Heerenveen wins by 2+
28%
Waalwijk wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Heerenveen 1+ goals
84%
Heerenveen 2+ goals
54%
Heerenveen 3+ goals
28%
Waalwijk 1+ goals
72%
Waalwijk 2+ goals
36%
Waalwijk 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Heerenveen (draw refunded)
65%
Waalwijk (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heerenveen at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.50 · 135 matches

Waalwijk away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.12 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heerenveen attack 1.53 + Waalwijk defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.83

Waalwijk attack 1.04 + Heerenveen defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Heerenveen scores more
50%
level
23%
Waalwijk scores more
27%

Heerenveen at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Heerenveen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
P. BochniewiczHeerenveenHeerenveen · D
7.7

Match Events

27'
L. Smans↳ J. Trenskow
34'
I. Sebaoui← J. Trenskow
46'
D. Cleonise← S. van der Water
61'
Y. Oukili← O. Zawada
61'
M. Ihattaren← T. van de Loo
67'
M. Kramer← R. van der Venne
78'
D. Hall← S. Kersten
78'
Danilo Al Saed← A. Jahanbakhsh
78'
D. Rallis← I. Nicolăescu
78'
R. Niemeijer← D. Van den Buijs
83'
M. Milovanović← P. Bochniewicz
90+1'
M. IhattarenPenalty

Possession

48%Heerenveen

Shots

13Heerenveen

Pass accuracy

50%Heerenveen

Statistics

HeerenveenWaalwijk
Overview
48%Possession52%
13Total Shots12
0.81Expected Goals (xG)1.14
3Corners3
14Fouls8
Shots
13Total Shots12
4On Target1
5Off Target5
4Blocked6
7Inside Box6
6Outside Box6
Passing
48%Possession52%
469Total Passes500
376Accurate Passes399
80%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
-0.75Goals Prevented-0.75
Discipline
14Fouls8
0Offsides3

Match Recap: Heerenveen vs Waalwijk

Heerenveen and Waalwijk drew 1-1 in Eredivisie on November 29, 2024.

Goals: L. Smans (27'), M. Ihattaren (90+1' pen).

Waalwijk controlled possession (52%) and registered 12 shots to 13.

The match was played at Abe Lenstra Stadion in Heerenveen.