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Waalwijk vs Heerenveen — Eredivisie 2026

Waalwijk
Waalwijk
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Heerenveen
Heerenveen
K. Felida 69'
P. van Amersfoort 52'
3/30/2024EredivisieEredivisie · Round 27Mandemakers Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Waalwijk41%
×Draw24%
Heerenveen35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Waalwijk
1.61
Heerenveen
1.45

Waalwijk creates 11% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 136 away

creates per match

Waalwijk
1.33
Heerenveen
1.34

allows per match

Waalwijk
1.55
Heerenveen
1.90

finishing

Waalwijk+0.00on par
Heerenveen+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waalwijk ↓

Heerenveen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Waalwijk or draw
65%
Waalwijk or Heerenveen
76%
Draw or Heerenveen
59%

Winning margin

Waalwijk wins by 2+
21%
Heerenveen wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Waalwijk 1+ goals
80%
Waalwijk 2+ goals
48%
Waalwijk 3+ goals
22%
Heerenveen 1+ goals
77%
Heerenveen 2+ goals
42%
Heerenveen 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Waalwijk (draw refunded)
55%
Heerenveen (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waalwijk at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.55 · 98 matches

Heerenveen away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.90 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waalwijk attack 1.33 + Heerenveen defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.61

Heerenveen attack 1.34 + Waalwijk defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Waalwijk scores more
41%
level
24%
Heerenveen scores more
35%

Waalwijk at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Waalwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

35
K. FelidaWaalwijkWaalwijk · M
7.9

Match Events

52'
P. van Amersfoort↳ O. Sahraoui
57'
D. Cleonise← R. Margaret
57'
C. Lokesa← R. Niemeijer
61'
Paweł Bochniewicz
69'
E. van Ee← A. Tahiri
69'
K. Felida
70'
C. Nunnely← P. Wålemark
79'
M. Kramer← M. Seuntjens
81'
S. van Ottele← S. Olsson
87'
D. Karlsbakk← O. Sahraoui
87'
D. Hall← O. Braude
90+2'
Aaron Meijers

Possession

39%Waalwijk

Shots

9Waalwijk

Pass accuracy

47%Waalwijk

Statistics

WaalwijkHeerenveen
Overview
39%Possession61%
9Total Shots10
0.66Expected Goals (xG)0.75
4Corners6
12Fouls10
Shots
9Total Shots10
3On Target6
3Off Target3
3Blocked1
6Inside Box7
3Outside Box3
Passing
39%Possession61%
349Total Passes556
263Accurate Passes466
75%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls10
1Yellow Cards1
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Waalwijk vs Heerenveen

Waalwijk and Heerenveen drew 1-1 in Eredivisie on March 30, 2024.

Goals: P. van Amersfoort (52'), K. Felida (69').

Heerenveen controlled possession (61%) and registered 10 shots to 9.

The match was played at Mandemakers Stadion in Waalwijk.