Heerenveen vs Waalwijk — Eredivisie 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 5+ matches
Heerenveen38%
Waalwijk37%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 18 home / 5 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over56
- Under44
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes59
- No41
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Heerenveen ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Heerenveen at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches
Waalwijk away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.19 · 5 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Heerenveen attack 1.78 + Waalwijk defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.48
Waalwijk attack 1.70 + Heerenveen defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.46
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
Heerenveen at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "Heerenveen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Waalwijk substitutes
PSV Eindhoven
Feyenoord
Ajax
NEC Nijmegen
Twente
Utrecht
AZ AlkmaarHeerenveen
Groningen
Sparta Rotterdam
Fortuna Sittard
GO Ahead Eagles
Excelsior
Telstar
PEC Zwolle
FC Volendam
NAC Breda
HeraclesIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Heerenveen host Waalwijk on Saturday, 25 February 2023 at 17:45. The match is part of the Eredivisie 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Heerenveen vs Waalwijk
Waalwijk beat Heerenveen 4-1 in Eredivisie on February 25, 2023.
Goals: S. van Hooijdonk (35'), F. Jozefzoon (61', 90+4'), J. Lelieveld (75'), Y. Oukili (77').
Heerenveen controlled possession (61%) and registered 26 shots to 8.
The match was played at Abe Lenstra Stadion in Heerenveen.