VVV Venlo 3–1 Almere City FC: Result & Stats

VVV Venlo

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Almere City FC

D. Zandbergen 43', 31'

N. Foor 21'

O. de Nijs 85'

4/24/2026

Eerste Divisie · Round 38Seacon - De Koel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

VVV Venlo43%

×Draw22%

Almere City FC35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VVV VenloExpected goals in this matchAlmere City FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.67

VVV Venlo

1.89

Almere City FC

1.67

VVV Venlo creates 13% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

2.29

creates per match

1.73

1.61

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

VVV Venlo

2.29

Almere City FC

1.73

allows per match

VVV Venlo

1.61

Almere City FC

1.49

-1.12scores less than expected

finishing

+0.47scores more than expected

finishing

VVV Venlo-1.12scores less

Almere City FC+0.47scores more

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VVV Venlo ↓

Almere City FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

VVV Venlo or draw

65%

VVV Venlo or Almere City FC

78%

Draw or Almere City FC

57%

Winning margin

VVV Venlo wins by 2+

24%

Almere City FC wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

VVV Venlo 1+ goals

85%

VVV Venlo 2+ goals

56%

VVV Venlo 3+ goals

29%

Almere City FC 1+ goals

81%

Almere City FC 2+ goals

50%

Almere City FC 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

VVV Venlo (draw refunded)

56%

Almere City FC (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VVV Venlo at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.61 · 6 matches

Almere City FC away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.49 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VVV Venlo attack 2.29 + Almere City FC defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.89

Almere City FC attack 1.73 + VVV Venlo defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

VVV Venlo scores more

43%

level

22%

Almere City FC scores more

35%

VVV Venlo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "VVV Venlo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

D. Zandbergen

VVV Venlo · F

8.7

Match Events

21'

N. Foor

31'

D. Zandbergen

43'

D. Zandbergen↳ P. Heise

46'

T. Kuijsten← J. Wendlinger

46'

J. Jacobs← J. Rijkhoff

46'

O. de Nijs← E. Poku

58'

Boyd Reith

61'

J. Kluskens← D. Timber

61'

Y. el Anbri← D. Saddiki

65'

M. de Haan← E. Cornelisse

65'

B. Huisman← F. Druijf

71'

71'

79'

85'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VVVAlmere

Overview

49%Possession51%

9Total Shots15

1.30Expected Goals (xG)1.42

2Corners7

8Fouls10

Shots

9Total Shots15

5On Target5

3Off Target8

1Blocked2

3Inside Box9

6Outside Box6

Passing

49%Possession51%

453Total Passes461

371Accurate Passes371

82%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls10

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1