VVV Venlo 1–1 Almere City FC: Result & Stats

VVV Venlo

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Almere City FC

M. van Rooijen 7'

A. Limbombe 29'

5/30/2023

Eredivisie · Relegation RoundCovebo Stadion - De Koel -

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

VVV Venlo39%

×Draw25%

Almere City FC35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VVV VenloExpected goals in this matchAlmere City FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.36

VVV Venlo

1.45

Almere City FC

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 37 away

1.27

creates per match

0.76

1.96

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

VVV Venlo

1.27

Almere City FC

0.76

allows per match

VVV Venlo

1.96

Almere City FC

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VVV Venlo+0.00on par

Almere City FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VVV Venlo ↓

Almere City FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

VVV Venlo or draw

65%

VVV Venlo or Almere City FC

75%

Draw or Almere City FC

61%

Winning margin

VVV Venlo wins by 2+

19%

Almere City FC wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

VVV Venlo 1+ goals

77%

VVV Venlo 2+ goals

42%

VVV Venlo 3+ goals

18%

Almere City FC 1+ goals

74%

Almere City FC 2+ goals

39%

Almere City FC 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

VVV Venlo (draw refunded)

53%

Almere City FC (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VVV Venlo at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.96 · 48 matches

Almere City FC away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.62 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VVV Venlo attack 1.27 + Almere City FC defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.45

Almere City FC attack 0.76 + VVV Venlo defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

VVV Venlo scores more

39%

level

25%

Almere City FC scores more

35%

VVV Venlo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "VVV Venlo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

N. Bakker

Almere City FC · G

7.7

Match Events

7'

M. van Rooijen↳ N. Venema

29'

A. Limbombe↳ Manel Royo

49'

D. Post← Manel Royo

58'

I. Alhaft← J. Ritmeester van de Kamp

58'

J. Hilterman← Pascu

58'

R. van La Parra← A. Limbombe

63'

C. Johansson← R. Klaasen

70'

Danny Post

70'

Danny PostCard upgrade

72'

S. Allouch← D. Huisman

72'

R. Lathouwers← T. Dekker

72'

M. Esajas← L. Duijvestijn

76'

79'

86'

90+1'

90+5'

90+5'

Hamdi AkujobiCard upgrade

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VVVAlmere

Overview

55%Possession45%

13Total Shots10

3Corners4

7Fouls8

Shots

13Total Shots10

7On Target2

4Off Target6

2Blocked2

8Inside Box2

5Outside Box8

Passing

55%Possession45%

521Total Passes436

421Accurate Passes349

81%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

7Fouls8

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

1Offsides4