Almere City FC 3–0 VVV Venlo: Result & Stats

Almere City FC

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

VVV Venlo

E. Poku 78', 29'

J. Rijkhoff 12'

11/24/2025

Eerste Divisie · Round 17Yanmar Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Almere City FC48%

×Draw22%

VVV Venlo31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Almere City FCExpected goals in this matchVVV Venlo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.57

Almere City FC

2.00

VVV Venlo

1.57

Almere City FC creates 27% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

1.99

creates per match

1.70

1.45

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

Almere City FC

1.99

VVV Venlo

1.70

allows per match

Almere City FC

1.45

VVV Venlo

2.01

+0.68scores more than expected

finishing

-0.41scores less than expected

finishing

Almere City FC+0.68scores more

VVV Venlo-0.41scores less

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almere City FC ↓

VVV Venlo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Almere City FC or draw

69%

Almere City FC or VVV Venlo

78%

Draw or VVV Venlo

52%

Winning margin

Almere City FC wins by 2+

27%

VVV Venlo wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Almere City FC 1+ goals

86%

Almere City FC 2+ goals

59%

Almere City FC 3+ goals

32%

VVV Venlo 1+ goals

79%

VVV Venlo 2+ goals

46%

VVV Venlo 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Almere City FC (draw refunded)

61%

VVV Venlo (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almere City FC at home — creates 1.99, concedes 1.45 · 6 matches

VVV Venlo away — creates 1.70, concedes 2.01 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almere City FC attack 1.99 + VVV Venlo defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 2.00

VVV Venlo attack 1.70 + Almere City FC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Almere City FC scores more

48%

level

22%

VVV Venlo scores more

31%

Almere City FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Almere City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

J. Wendlinger

Almere City FC · G

9.5

Match Events

12'

J. Rijkhoff↳ B. Burgering

24'

Gabin Blancquart

29'

E. Poku↳ J. Kalisvaart

35'

M. Odriss← J. Triep

46'

D. Saddiki← J. Eijgenraam

54'

Amoah Foah-Sam

61'

L. Kromah← T. Janssen

67'

B. Reith← A. Sam

67'

M. Engel← J. Lawrence

72'

D. van Oorschot← N. Ait Mouhou

72'

B. van Zijl← D. Zandbergen

73'

J. Kadile← F. Druijf

78'

E. Poku↳ J. Kadile

82'

E. Cornelisse← M. de Haan

82'

J. Jacobs← B. Burgering

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlmereVVV

Overview

40%Possession60%

12Total Shots11

0.84Expected Goals (xG)1.71

10Corners7

18Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots11

7On Target5

3Off Target3

2Blocked3

8Inside Box6

4Outside Box5

Passing

40%Possession60%

340Total Passes505

258Accurate Passes409

76%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

18Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides3