Almere City FC 1–3 VVV Venlo: Result & Stats

Almere City FC

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

VVV Venlo

J. Ritmeester van de Kamp 18'

M. Berden 61'

K. de Boer 54'

N. Venema 49'

3/13/2023

Eerste Divisie · Round 30Yanmar Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Almere City FC48%

×Draw22%

VVV Venlo31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Almere City FCExpected goals in this matchVVV Venlo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.57

Almere City FC

2.00

VVV Venlo

1.57

Almere City FC creates 27% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

1.99

creates per match

1.70

1.45

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

Almere City FC

1.99

VVV Venlo

1.70

allows per match

Almere City FC

1.45

VVV Venlo

2.01

+0.68scores more than expected

finishing

-0.41scores less than expected

finishing

Almere City FC+0.68scores more

VVV Venlo-0.41scores less

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almere City FC ↓

VVV Venlo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Almere City FC or draw

69%

Almere City FC or VVV Venlo

78%

Draw or VVV Venlo

52%

Winning margin

Almere City FC wins by 2+

27%

VVV Venlo wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Almere City FC 1+ goals

86%

Almere City FC 2+ goals

59%

Almere City FC 3+ goals

32%

VVV Venlo 1+ goals

79%

VVV Venlo 2+ goals

46%

VVV Venlo 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Almere City FC (draw refunded)

61%

VVV Venlo (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almere City FC at home — creates 1.99, concedes 1.45 · 6 matches

VVV Venlo away — creates 1.70, concedes 2.01 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almere City FC attack 1.99 + VVV Venlo defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 2.00

VVV Venlo attack 1.70 + Almere City FC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Almere City FC scores more

48%

level

22%

VVV Venlo scores more

31%

Almere City FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Almere City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

K. de Boer

VVV Venlo · M

8.9

Match Events

18'

J. Ritmeester van de Kamp

46'

D. Huisman← R. Lathouwers

46'

M. van Rooijen← R. Sedláček

49'

N. Venema↳ K. de Boer

54'

K. de Boer↳ M. van Rooijen

61'

J. Hilterman← Pascu

61'

K. Hansen← Álvaro Peña

61'

M. Berden↳ K. de Boer

72'

J. Kluskens← S. Braken

78'

R. van La Parra← S. Resink

79'

T. Poll← Manel Royo

84'

M. Corryn← H. Akujobi

84'

S. Allouch← N. Venema

85'

Ö. Yaşar← M. Berden

90+3'

Milan Corryn

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlmereVVV

Overview

56%Possession44%

20Total Shots9

7Corners3

6Fouls8

Shots

20Total Shots9

10On Target5

5Off Target2

5Blocked2

11Inside Box9

9Outside Box0

Passing

56%Possession44%

500Total Passes401

399Accurate Passes270

80%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

2Saves9

Discipline

6Fouls8

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides4