Almere City FC 1–1 VVV Venlo: Result & Stats

Almere City FC

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

VVV Venlo

Álvaro Peña 120+7' (pen)

L. Duijvestijn 120+5' (pen), 50'

S. Allouch 62'

6/3/2023

Eredivisie · Relegation RoundYanmar Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Almere City FC42%

×Draw23%

VVV Venlo35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Almere City FCExpected goals in this matchVVV Venlo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.56

Almere City FC

1.71

VVV Venlo

1.56

Almere City FC creates 10% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 45 away

0.92

creates per match

1.18

1.94

allows per match

2.49

creates per match

Almere City FC

0.92

VVV Venlo

1.18

allows per match

Almere City FC

1.94

VVV Venlo

2.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Almere City FC+0.00on par

VVV Venlo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almere City FC ↓

VVV Venlo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Almere City FC or draw

65%

Almere City FC or VVV Venlo

77%

Draw or VVV Venlo

58%

Winning margin

Almere City FC wins by 2+

22%

VVV Venlo wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Almere City FC 1+ goals

82%

Almere City FC 2+ goals

51%

Almere City FC 3+ goals

24%

VVV Venlo 1+ goals

79%

VVV Venlo 2+ goals

46%

VVV Venlo 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Almere City FC (draw refunded)

54%

VVV Venlo (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almere City FC at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.94 · 36 matches

VVV Venlo away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.49 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almere City FC attack 0.92 + VVV Venlo defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 1.71

VVV Venlo attack 1.18 + Almere City FC defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Almere City FC scores more

42%

level

23%

VVV Venlo scores more

35%

Almere City FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Almere City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

E. van der Gouw

VVV Venlo · G

9.3

Match Events

42'

Lance Duijvestijn

46'

S. Allouch← D. Huisman

50'

L. Duijvestijn

55'

Hamdi Akujobi

57'

C. Johansson← R. Klaasen

62'

Soulyman Allouch

62'

S. Allouch↳ K. de Boer

65'

I. Alhaft← Pascu

75'

S. Resink← J. Smeets

75'

R. van La Parra← A. Limbombe

82'

Carl Johansson

88'

Ö. Yaşar← S. Braken

89'

Theo Barbet

90+3'

R. Lathouwers← T. Dekker

92'

T. Poll← T. Barbet

105'

K. Kristinsson← C. Johansson

109'

Damian van Bruggen

113'

Rick Ketting

120'

J. Ritmeester van de Kamp← J. Hilterman

120+1'

R. van La ParraMissed penalty

120+2'

N. VenemaMissed penalty

120+3'

I. AlhaftMissed penalty

120+4'

S. AllouchMissed penalty

120+5'

L. DuijvestijnPenalty

120+6'

B. KoglinMissed penalty

120+7'

Álvaro PeñaPenalty

120+8'

K. de BoerMissed penalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlmereVVV

Overview

58%Possession42%

45Total Shots10

16Corners3

16Fouls12

Shots

45Total Shots10

7On Target5

22Off Target3

16Blocked2

33Inside Box4

12Outside Box6

Passing

58%Possession42%

605Total Passes438

476Accurate Passes279

79%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

3Saves7

Discipline

16Fouls12

4Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2

Match Recap: Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo

Almere City FC and VVV Venlo drew 1-1 in Eredivisie on June 3, 2023.

Goals: L. Duijvestijn (50', 120+5' pen), S. Allouch (62'), Álvaro Peña (120+7' pen).

Almere City FC controlled possession (58%) and registered 45 shots to 10.

The match was played at Yanmar Stadion in Almere.

Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo — Eredivisie 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo