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Vissel Kobe vs FC Tokyo — J1 League 2018

Vissel Kobe
Vissel Kobe
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Tokyo
FC Tokyo
11/30/2025J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 37Noevir Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Vissel Kobe54%
×Draw24%
FC Tokyo22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vissel Kobe
1.72
FC Tokyo
1.00

Vissel Kobe creates 72% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

creates per match

Vissel Kobe
2.03
FC Tokyo
1.20

allows per match

Vissel Kobe
0.81
FC Tokyo
1.42

finishing

Vissel Kobe+0.11scores more
FC Tokyo-0.09on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vissel Kobe ↓

FC Tokyo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Vissel Kobe or draw
78%
Vissel Kobe or FC Tokyo
76%
Draw or FC Tokyo
46%

Winning margin

Vissel Kobe wins by 2+
30%
FC Tokyo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Vissel Kobe 1+ goals
82%
Vissel Kobe 2+ goals
51%
Vissel Kobe 3+ goals
25%
FC Tokyo 1+ goals
63%
FC Tokyo 2+ goals
26%
FC Tokyo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)
71%
FC Tokyo (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vissel Kobe at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.81 · 7 matches

FC Tokyo away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.42 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vissel Kobe attack 2.03 + FC Tokyo defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.72

FC Tokyo attack 1.20 + Vissel Kobe defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Vissel Kobe scores more
54%
level
24%
FC Tokyo scores more
22%

Vissel Kobe at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Vissel Kobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
ThulerVissel KobeVissel Kobe · D
8.0

Match Events

34'
Keita Endo
67'
G. Sakai← N. Iino
67'
Erik← Y. Muto
68'
Kein Sato
71'
Marcos Guilherme← L. Nozawa
72'
T. Nakagawa← Marcelo Ryan
72'
S. Anzai← K. Endo
77'
Thuler
83'
Y. Honda← K. Nagato
90+3'
Sei Muroya

Possession

65%Vissel

Shots

19Vissel

Pass accuracy

54%Vissel

Statistics

VisselFC
Overview
65%Possession35%
19Total Shots4
1.39Expected Goals (xG)0.39
8Corners1
12Fouls16
Shots
19Total Shots4
5On Target1
11Off Target2
3Blocked1
14Inside Box1
5Outside Box3
Passing
65%Possession35%
614Total Passes333
503Accurate Passes231
82%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
12Fouls16
1Yellow Cards3
2Offsides2

J1 League: Vissel Kobe 0–0 FC Tokyo

Vissel Kobe and FC Tokyo drew 0-0 in J1 League on November 30, 2025.

Vissel Kobe controlled possession (65%) and registered 19 shots to 4.

The match was played at Noevir Stadium in Kobe.