Vissel Kobe 0–2 FC Tokyo: Result & Stats

Vissel Kobe

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

FC Tokyo

S. Anzai 54'

K. Endo 24'

10/18/2024

J1 League · Round 34NOEVIR Stadium Kobe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Vissel Kobe54%

×Draw24%

FC Tokyo22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vissel KobeExpected goals in this matchFC Tokyo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.00

Vissel Kobe

1.72

FC Tokyo

1.00

Vissel Kobe creates 72% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

2.03

creates per match

1.20

0.81

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Vissel Kobe

2.03

FC Tokyo

1.20

allows per match

Vissel Kobe

0.81

FC Tokyo

1.42

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Vissel Kobe+0.11scores more

FC Tokyo-0.09on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vissel Kobe ↓

FC Tokyo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Vissel Kobe or draw

78%

Vissel Kobe or FC Tokyo

76%

Draw or FC Tokyo

46%

Winning margin

Vissel Kobe wins by 2+

30%

FC Tokyo wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Vissel Kobe 1+ goals

82%

Vissel Kobe 2+ goals

51%

Vissel Kobe 3+ goals

25%

FC Tokyo 1+ goals

63%

FC Tokyo 2+ goals

26%

FC Tokyo 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)

71%

FC Tokyo (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vissel Kobe at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.81 · 7 matches

FC Tokyo away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.42 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vissel Kobe attack 2.03 + FC Tokyo defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.72

FC Tokyo attack 1.20 + Vissel Kobe defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Vissel Kobe scores more

54%

level

24%

FC Tokyo scores more

22%

Vissel Kobe at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Vissel Kobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

71

R. Araki

FC Tokyo · M

8.3

Match Events

5'

Yosuke Ideguchi

7'

Diego Oliveira

17'

Soma Anzai

24'

K. Endo↳ R. Araki

46'

K. Yuruki← D. Sasaki

54'

S. Anzai↳ R. Araki

59'

Everton Galdino← Diego Oliveira

62'

Jean Patrick← T. Miyashiro

66'

G. Hatano← T. Nozawa

72'

K. Doi← K. Higashi

73'

K. Yamashita← R. Araki

73'

L. Nozawa← K. Endo

74'

Y. Honda← R. Hatsuse

74'

R. Hirose← Y. Ideguchi

80'

R. Kikuchi← T. Yamakawa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VisselFC

Overview

70%Possession30%

15Total Shots5

1.15Expected Goals (xG)0.81

6Corners1

12Fouls20

Shots

15Total Shots5

6On Target3

6Off Target2

3Blocked0

10Inside Box4

5Outside Box1

Passing

70%Possession30%

490Total Passes217

375Accurate Passes114

77%Pass Accuracy53%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

12Fouls20

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2