FC Tokyo 1–0 Vissel Kobe: Result & Stats

FC Tokyo

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vissel Kobe

Marcelo Ryan 90' (pen)

5/10/2025

J1 League · Round 16Ajinomoto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

FC Tokyo57%

×Draw21%

Vissel Kobe22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC TokyoExpected goals in this matchVissel Kobe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.17

FC Tokyo

2.02

Vissel Kobe

1.17

FC Tokyo creates 73% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

2.06

creates per match

1.20

1.15

allows per match

1.99

creates per match

FC Tokyo

2.06

Vissel Kobe

1.20

allows per match

FC Tokyo

1.15

Vissel Kobe

1.99

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

FC Tokyo-0.31scores less

Vissel Kobe-0.20scores less

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Tokyo ↓

Vissel Kobe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

FC Tokyo or draw

78%

FC Tokyo or Vissel Kobe

79%

Draw or Vissel Kobe

43%

Winning margin

FC Tokyo wins by 2+

34%

Vissel Kobe wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

FC Tokyo 1+ goals

87%

FC Tokyo 2+ goals

60%

FC Tokyo 3+ goals

33%

Vissel Kobe 1+ goals

69%

Vissel Kobe 2+ goals

33%

Vissel Kobe 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

FC Tokyo (draw refunded)

72%

Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Tokyo at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.15 · 8 matches

Vissel Kobe away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.99 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Tokyo attack 2.06 + Vissel Kobe defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 2.02

Vissel Kobe attack 1.20 + FC Tokyo defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

FC Tokyo scores more

57%

level

21%

Vissel Kobe scores more

22%

FC Tokyo at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "FC Tokyo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

47

S. Kimura

FC Tokyo · D

7.9

Match Events

7'

Henrique Trevisan

37'

Gotoku Sakai

59'

Y. Osako← K. Yuruki

70'

Thuler← R. Hirose

70'

Jean Patric← Erik

77'

S. Anzai← K. Endo

83'

Y. Nagatomo← K. Shirai

83'

K. Tokiwa← K. Koizumi

83'

T. Nakagawa← K. Sato

85'

Gustavo Klismahn← D. Sasaki

90+6'

Marcelo Ryan

90+10'

Soma AnzaiPenalty confirmed

90+15'

Thuler

90+12'

Yuki Honda

90'

M. Kitahara← K. Tawaratsumida

90'

Marcelo RyanPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCVissel

Overview

46%Possession54%

15Total Shots16

2.96Expected Goals (xG)0.60

5Corners11

11Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots16

7On Target3

6Off Target10

2Blocked3

12Inside Box10

3Outside Box6

Passing

46%Possession54%

292Total Passes332

212Accurate Passes245

73%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls12

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides6