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FC Tokyo vs Vissel Kobe — J1 League 2018

FC Tokyo
FC Tokyo
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Vissel Kobe
Vissel Kobe
3/9/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 3Ajinomoto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 148+ matches

FC Tokyo40%
×Draw26%
Vissel Kobe34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Tokyo
1.41
Vissel Kobe
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 149 home / 148 away

creates per match

FC Tokyo
1.48
Vissel Kobe
1.42

allows per match

FC Tokyo
1.17
Vissel Kobe
1.34

finishing

FC Tokyo+0.00on par
Vissel Kobe+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Tokyo ↓

Vissel Kobe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

FC Tokyo or draw
66%
FC Tokyo or Vissel Kobe
74%
Draw or Vissel Kobe
60%

Winning margin

FC Tokyo wins by 2+
19%
Vissel Kobe wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FC Tokyo 1+ goals
76%
FC Tokyo 2+ goals
41%
FC Tokyo 3+ goals
17%
Vissel Kobe 1+ goals
72%
Vissel Kobe 2+ goals
37%
Vissel Kobe 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FC Tokyo (draw refunded)
54%
Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Tokyo at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.17 · 149 matches

Vissel Kobe away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.34 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Tokyo attack 1.48 + Vissel Kobe defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.41

Vissel Kobe attack 1.42 + FC Tokyo defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC Tokyo scores more
40%
level
26%
Vissel Kobe scores more
34%

FC Tokyo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Tokyo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: FC Tokyo 1–2 Vissel Kobe

Vissel Kobe beat FC Tokyo 2-1 in J1 League on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Ajinomoto Stadium in Chōfu.