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FC Tokyo vs Vissel Kobe — J1 League 2018

FC Tokyo
FC Tokyo
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Vissel Kobe
Vissel Kobe
Adaílton 0 90+10'
Diego Oliveira 18'
4 H. Yamaguchi 90+14'
Y. Osako 90+3' (pen)
8/26/2023J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 25Japan National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

FC Tokyo53%
×Draw21%
Vissel Kobe25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Tokyo
2.06
Vissel Kobe
1.37

FC Tokyo creates 50% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

FC Tokyo
2.08
Vissel Kobe
1.43

allows per match

FC Tokyo
1.31
Vissel Kobe
2.04

finishing

FC Tokyo-0.30scores less
Vissel Kobe-0.26scores less

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Tokyo ↓

Vissel Kobe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

FC Tokyo or draw
75%
FC Tokyo or Vissel Kobe
79%
Draw or Vissel Kobe
47%

Winning margin

FC Tokyo wins by 2+
31%
Vissel Kobe wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FC Tokyo 1+ goals
87%
FC Tokyo 2+ goals
61%
FC Tokyo 3+ goals
34%
Vissel Kobe 1+ goals
75%
Vissel Kobe 2+ goals
40%
Vissel Kobe 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

FC Tokyo (draw refunded)
68%
Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Tokyo at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.31 · 9 matches

Vissel Kobe away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.04 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Tokyo attack 2.08 + Vissel Kobe defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.06

Vissel Kobe attack 1.43 + FC Tokyo defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

FC Tokyo scores more
53%
level
21%
Vissel Kobe scores more
25%

FC Tokyo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "FC Tokyo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
H. YamaguchiVissel KobeVissel Kobe · M
8.0

Match Events

18'
Diego Oliveira↳ T. Nakagawa
46'
T. Ohgihara← L. Osaki
58'
M. Arai← K. Yuruki
59'
Takahiro Ogihara
65'
Yuto NagatomoPenalty confirmed
67'
Jája Silva← K. Tawaratsumida
68'
R. Harakawa← K. Higashi
68'
Adaílton← Diego Oliveira
68'
Jean Patrick← D. Sasaki
75'
Matheus Thuler← Y. Honda
75'
N. Iino← R. Hatsuse
79'
Kuryu Matsuki
82'
Yuto Nagatomo
82'
S. Kimura← T. Nakagawa
88'
Jean PatricPenalty confirmed
90+2'
Taishi Brandon Nozawa
90+3'
Y. OsakoPenalty
90+10'
Adaílton 0↳ K. Matsuki
90+14'
4 H. Yamaguchi↳ Y. Osako

Possession

54%FC

Shots

19FC

Pass accuracy

50%FC

Statistics

FCVissel
Overview
54%Possession46%
19Total Shots17
2.28Expected Goals (xG)2.58
6Corners4
15Fouls11
Shots
19Total Shots17
4On Target5
6Off Target7
9Blocked5
12Inside Box14
7Outside Box3
Passing
54%Possession46%
387Total Passes324
278Accurate Passes234
72%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
15Fouls11
3Yellow Cards1
1Offsides4

Match Recap: FC Tokyo vs Vissel Kobe

FC Tokyo and Vissel Kobe drew 2-2 in J1 League on August 26, 2023.

Goals: Diego Oliveira (18'), Y. Osako (90+3' pen), Adaílton 0 (90+10'), 4 H. Yamaguchi (90+14').

FC Tokyo controlled possession (54%) and registered 19 shots to 17.

The match was played at Japan National Stadium in Tokyo.