Viking 4–1 Molde: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Viking

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Molde

N. Fuglestad 61', 7'

H. Heggheim 31', 25'

E. Breivik 9'

3/21/2026

Eliteserien · Round 2Lyse Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Viking49%

×Draw24%

Molde27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VikingExpected goals in this matchMolde

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.23

Viking

1.75

Molde

1.23

Viking creates 42% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 28 away

2.17

creates per match

1.35

1.11

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Viking

2.17

Molde

1.35

allows per match

Viking

1.11

Molde

1.34

+0.88scores more than expected

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Viking+0.88scores more

Molde+0.01on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viking ↓

Molde →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Viking or draw

73%

Viking or Molde

76%

Draw or Molde

51%

Winning margin

Viking wins by 2+

27%

Molde wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Viking 1+ goals

83%

Viking 2+ goals

52%

Viking 3+ goals

25%

Molde 1+ goals

71%

Molde 2+ goals

35%

Molde 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Viking (draw refunded)

65%

Molde (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viking at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Molde away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.34 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viking attack 2.17 + Molde defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.75

Molde attack 1.35 + Viking defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Viking scores more

49%

level

24%

Molde scores more

27%

Viking at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

H. Heggheim

Viking · D

8.5

Match Events

7'

N. Fuglestad↳ P. Christiansen

9'

E. Breivik

15'

Henrik Sælebakke FalchenerGoal cancelled

25'

H. Heggheim↳ Z. Tripic

31'

H. Heggheim↳ K. Haugen

35'

Kristoffer Askildsen

54'

Samukelo Kabini

61'

N. Fuglestad↳ S. Kvia-Egeskog

64'

Henrik Sælebakke Falchener

65'

C. Zady← T. Kone-Doherty

65'

F. Gulbrandsen← J. Abdullai

66'

H. J. Haugen← N. Fuglestad

66'

J. Hansen← K. Askildsen

74'

H. Mikaelsson← P. Christiansen

77'

I. Amundsen← E. Haugan

77'

B. Isufi← K. Eriksen

79'

Henrik Heggheim

85'

V. Auklend← H. Heggheim

85'

87'

90+3'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VikingMolde

Overview

33%Possession67%

12Total Shots12

2.22Expected Goals (xG)1.55

3Corners9

19Fouls15

Shots

12Total Shots12

6On Target5

3Off Target7

3Blocked0

11Inside Box10

1Outside Box2

Passing

33%Possession67%

292Total Passes586

213Accurate Passes509

73%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

-0.79Goals Prevented-0.79

Discipline

19Fouls15

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

2Offsides0

Eliteserien: Viking 4–1 Molde

Viking beat Molde 4-1 in Eliteserien on March 21, 2026.

Goals: N. Fuglestad (7', 61'), E. Breivik (9'), H. Heggheim (25', 31').

Molde controlled possession (67%) and registered 12 shots to 12.

The match was played at Lyse Arena in Stavanger.

Viking vs Molde — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Viking 4–1 Molde