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Molde vs Viking — Eliteserien 2026

Molde
Molde
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Viking
Viking
H. Falchener 3'
6/1/2025EliteserienEliteserien · Round 9Aker Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Molde39%
×Draw24%
Viking37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Molde
1.54
Viking
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 28 away

creates per match

Molde
2.02
Viking
1.78

allows per match

Molde
1.22
Viking
1.07

finishing

Molde+0.28scores more
Viking+0.22scores more

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molde ↓

Viking →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Molde or draw
63%
Molde or Viking
76%
Draw or Viking
61%

Winning margin

Molde wins by 2+
19%
Viking wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Molde 1+ goals
79%
Molde 2+ goals
45%
Molde 3+ goals
20%
Viking 1+ goals
78%
Viking 2+ goals
44%
Viking 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Molde (draw refunded)
51%
Viking (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molde at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.22 · 27 matches

Viking away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.07 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molde attack 2.02 + Viking defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.54

Viking attack 1.78 + Molde defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Molde scores more
39%
level
24%
Viking scores more
37%

Molde at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Molde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25
H. FalchenerVikingViking · D
8.9

Match Events

3'
H. Falchener↳ Z. Tripic
17'
C. Cappis← S. Svendsen
20'
M. Kaasa← V. Lund
30'
Eirik Haugan
51'
Halldor Stenevik
58'
E. Hestad← K. Eriksen
71'
H. J. Haugen← Z. Tripic
71'
K. Askildsen← E. Austbo
73'
Herman Johan Haugen
73'
C. Oyvann← I. Amundsen
73'
J. Bakke← F. Gulbrandsen
73'
D. Daga← M. Eikrem
85'
S. Bjorshol← J. Hansen
85'
H. Mikaelsson← P. Christiansen
88'
Daniel DagaGoal cancelled
89'
Kristoffer Askildsen

Possession

68%Molde

Shots

10Molde

Pass accuracy

56%Molde

Statistics

MoldeViking
Overview
68%Possession32%
10Total Shots15
0.24Expected Goals (xG)1.54
7Corners4
14Fouls14
Shots
10Total Shots15
0On Target3
5Off Target6
5Blocked6
6Inside Box8
4Outside Box7
Passing
68%Possession32%
598Total Passes283
495Accurate Passes187
83%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
Discipline
14Fouls14
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

Molde 0 – 1 Viking

Viking beat Molde 1-0 in Eliteserien on June 1, 2025.

Goals: H. Falchener (3').

Molde controlled possession (68%) and registered 10 shots to 15.

The match was played at Aker Stadion in Molde.