Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Viking vs Molde — Eliteserien 2026

Viking
Viking
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Molde
Molde
S. Kvia-Egeskog 61'
9/21/2025EliteserienEliteserien · Round 22Lyse Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Viking50%
×Draw23%
Molde27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viking
1.80
Molde
1.25

Viking creates 44% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 29 away

creates per match

Viking
2.23
Molde
1.35

allows per match

Viking
1.14
Molde
1.38

finishing

Viking+0.72scores more
Molde-0.04on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viking ↓

Molde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Viking or draw
73%
Viking or Molde
77%
Draw or Molde
50%

Winning margin

Viking wins by 2+
28%
Molde wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Viking 1+ goals
83%
Viking 2+ goals
54%
Viking 3+ goals
27%
Molde 1+ goals
71%
Molde 2+ goals
36%
Molde 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Viking (draw refunded)
65%
Molde (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viking at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

Molde away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.38 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viking attack 2.23 + Molde defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.80

Molde attack 1.35 + Viking defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Viking scores more
50%
level
23%
Molde scores more
27%

Viking at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
K. HaugenVikingViking · D
7.9

Match Events

38'
Kristoffer Askildsen
46'
N. D'Agostino← V. Berisha
57'
Samukelo Kabini
61'
S. Kvia-Egeskog↳ S. Svendsen
64'
H. Heggheim← S. Bjorshol
64'
J. Hansen← K. Askildsen
64'
C. Zady← O. Spiten-Nysaeter
64'
N. Kasanwirjo← S. Kabini
74'
H. J. Haugen← S. Svendsen
74'
P. Christiansen← E. Austbo
80'
J. Abdullai← F. Gulbrandsen
80'
D. Daga← M. Eikrem
83'
H. Stenevik← E. Hestad

Possession

51%Viking

Shots

29Viking

Pass accuracy

49%Viking

Statistics

VikingMolde
Overview
51%Possession49%
29Total Shots20
2.64Expected Goals (xG)1.25
16Corners5
9Fouls4
Shots
29Total Shots20
7On Target4
14Off Target13
8Blocked3
18Inside Box12
11Outside Box8
Passing
51%Possession49%
443Total Passes440
366Accurate Passes373
83%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
9Fouls4
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides3

Match Recap: Viking vs Molde

Viking beat Molde 1-0 in Eliteserien on September 21, 2025.

Goals: S. Kvia-Egeskog (61').

Viking controlled possession (51%) and registered 29 shots to 20.

The match was played at Lyse Arena in Stavanger.