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Viking vs Molde — Eliteserien 2026

Viking
Viking
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Molde
Molde
S. Bjørshol 47'
7/28/2024EliteserienEliteserien · Round 16SR-Bank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Viking50%
×Draw23%
Molde27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viking
1.80
Molde
1.25

Viking creates 44% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 29 away

creates per match

Viking
2.23
Molde
1.35

allows per match

Viking
1.14
Molde
1.38

finishing

Viking+0.72scores more
Molde-0.04on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viking ↓

Molde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Viking or draw
73%
Viking or Molde
77%
Draw or Molde
50%

Winning margin

Viking wins by 2+
28%
Molde wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Viking 1+ goals
83%
Viking 2+ goals
54%
Viking 3+ goals
27%
Molde 1+ goals
71%
Molde 2+ goals
36%
Molde 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Viking (draw refunded)
65%
Molde (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viking at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

Molde away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.38 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viking attack 2.23 + Molde defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.80

Molde attack 1.35 + Viking defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Viking scores more
50%
level
23%
Molde scores more
27%

Viking at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
S. BjørsholVikingViking · D
7.9

Match Events

41'
Valdemar Lund
44'
Zlatko Tripić
46'
Y. de Lanlay← K. Sætherbø
47'
S. Bjørshol↳ S. Kvia-Egeskog
55'
M. Løvik← K. Haugen
65'
H. Finndell← H. Tangen
65'
A. Olanare← K. Eriksen
65'
E. Haugan← V. Lund
70'
Sondre Flem Bjørshol
76'
Aaron OlanareGoal cancelled
77'
Sondre Klingen Langås
78'
D. Diop← S. Kvia-Egeskog
78'
H. Haugen← S. Bjørshol
81'
M. Linnes← H. Stenevik
87'
K. Løkberg← P. Christiansen

Possession

45%Viking

Shots

8Viking

Pass accuracy

47%Viking

Statistics

VikingMolde
Overview
45%Possession55%
8Total Shots12
3Corners8
15Fouls13
Shots
8Total Shots12
3On Target5
4Off Target5
1Blocked2
5Inside Box9
3Outside Box3
Passing
45%Possession55%
343Total Passes409
245Accurate Passes323
71%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
Discipline
15Fouls13
3Yellow Cards1
2Offsides1

Viking 1 – 0 Molde

Viking beat Molde 1-0 in Eliteserien on July 28, 2024.

Goals: S. Bjørshol (47').

Molde controlled possession (55%) and registered 12 shots to 8.

The match was played at SR-Bank Arena in Stavanger.