Viking 3–1 KFUM Oslo: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Viking

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

KFUM Oslo

Z. Tripic 83' (pen)

M. Tonnessen 74' (OG)

J. Urbancic 39'

M. Njie 29'

4/6/2025

Eliteserien · Round 2Lyse Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Viking49%

×Draw25%

KFUM Oslo26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VikingExpected goals in this matchKFUM Oslo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.12

Viking

1.64

KFUM Oslo

1.12

Viking creates 46% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 22 away

2.15

creates per match

1.08

1.16

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Viking

2.15

KFUM Oslo

1.08

allows per match

Viking

1.16

KFUM Oslo

1.12

+0.73scores more than expected

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

Viking+0.73scores more

KFUM Oslo+0.19scores more

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viking ↓

KFUM Oslo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Viking or draw

74%

Viking or KFUM Oslo

75%

Draw or KFUM Oslo

51%

Winning margin

Viking wins by 2+

26%

KFUM Oslo wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Viking 1+ goals

81%

Viking 2+ goals

49%

Viking 3+ goals

23%

KFUM Oslo 1+ goals

67%

KFUM Oslo 2+ goals

31%

KFUM Oslo 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Viking (draw refunded)

65%

KFUM Oslo (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viking at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.16 · 26 matches

KFUM Oslo away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.12 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viking attack 2.15 + KFUM Oslo defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.64

KFUM Oslo attack 1.08 + Viking defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Viking scores more

49%

level

25%

KFUM Oslo scores more

26%

Viking at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Z. Tripic

Viking · M

8.6

Match Events

8'

Henrik HeggheimPenalty cancelled

20'

Momodou Lion Njie

29'

M. Njie↳ J. Nunez

39'

J. Urbancic

40'

David Hickson Gyedu

53'

Edvin Austbø

59'

O. Okeke← B. Kristensen

62'

Henrik Sælebakke Falchener

63'

N. D'Agostino← P. Christiansen

63'

S. Kvia-Egeskog← C. Cappis

69'

K. Askildsen← S. Svendsen

74'

M. TonnessenOwn goal

76'

76'

77'

82'

83'

Z. TripicPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VikingKFUM

Overview

58%Possession42%

17Total Shots6

1.74Expected Goals (xG)0.74

5Corners1

13Fouls13

Shots

17Total Shots6

2On Target2

9Off Target1

6Blocked3

12Inside Box3

5Outside Box3

Passing

58%Possession42%

484Total Passes357

393Accurate Passes268

81%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides4

Match Recap: Viking vs KFUM Oslo

Viking beat KFUM Oslo 3-1 in Eliteserien on April 6, 2025.

Goals: M. Njie (29'), J. Urbancic (39'), M. Tonnessen (74' o.g.), Z. Tripic (83' pen).

Viking controlled possession (58%) and registered 17 shots to 6.

The match was played at Lyse Arena in Stavanger.

Viking vs KFUM Oslo — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Viking vs KFUM Oslo