Viking 1–0 KFUM Oslo: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Viking

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

KFUM Oslo

M. Njie 39' (OG)

9/14/2024

Eliteserien · Round 22SR-Bank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Viking49%

×Draw25%

KFUM Oslo26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VikingExpected goals in this matchKFUM Oslo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.11

Viking

1.63

KFUM Oslo

1.11

Viking creates 47% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 23 away

2.12

creates per match

1.07

1.16

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Viking

2.12

KFUM Oslo

1.07

allows per match

Viking

1.16

KFUM Oslo

1.13

+0.69scores more than expected

finishing

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

Viking+0.69scores more

KFUM Oslo+0.15scores more

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viking ↓

KFUM Oslo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Viking or draw

74%

Viking or KFUM Oslo

75%

Draw or KFUM Oslo

51%

Winning margin

Viking wins by 2+

26%

KFUM Oslo wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Viking 1+ goals

80%

Viking 2+ goals

48%

Viking 3+ goals

22%

KFUM Oslo 1+ goals

67%

KFUM Oslo 2+ goals

30%

KFUM Oslo 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Viking (draw refunded)

66%

KFUM Oslo (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viking at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.16 · 27 matches

KFUM Oslo away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.13 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viking attack 2.12 + KFUM Oslo defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.63

KFUM Oslo attack 1.07 + Viking defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Viking scores more

49%

level

25%

KFUM Oslo scores more

26%

Viking at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Z. Tripić

Viking · M

7.7

Match Events

16'

18'

25'

29'

33'

36'

P. Christiansen← E. Austbø

39'

M. NjieOwn goal

41'

Zlatko Tripić

41'

Joe Bell

46'

T. Haltvik← Moussa Njie

57'

V. Vevatne← J. Urbančič

69'

J. Hjorth← R. Svindland

70'

Sverre Hakami Sandal

76'

M. Ndiaye← A. Aleesami

83'

H. Finndell← H. Haugen

83'

C. Cappis← J. Bell

83'

H. Heggheim← S. Svendsen

90+4'

Henrik Heggheim

90+1'

Johannes Núñez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VikingKFUM

Overview

55%Possession45%

14Total Shots5

1.31Expected Goals (xG)0.93

3Corners2

14Fouls14

Shots

14Total Shots5

3On Target1

6Off Target3

5Blocked1

10Inside Box2

4Outside Box3

Passing

55%Possession45%

491Total Passes394

387Accurate Passes290

79%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls14

4Yellow Cards6