KFUM Oslo 2–2 Viking: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

KFUM Oslo

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Viking

S. Hestnes 19'

D. Hickson 1'

M. Roseth 73'

D. Schneider 5' (OG)

9/14/2025

Eliteserien · Round 21KFUM Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

KFUM Oslo34%

×Draw26%

Viking40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KFUM OsloExpected goals in this matchViking

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.38

KFUM Oslo

1.25

Viking

1.38

Viking creates 10% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 29 away

1.42

creates per match

1.73

1.02

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

KFUM Oslo

1.42

Viking

1.73

allows per match

KFUM Oslo

1.02

Viking

1.08

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

KFUM Oslo-0.16scores less

Viking+0.24scores more

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KFUM Oslo ↓

Viking →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

KFUM Oslo or draw

60%

KFUM Oslo or Viking

74%

Draw or Viking

66%

Winning margin

KFUM Oslo wins by 2+

15%

Viking wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

KFUM Oslo 1+ goals

71%

KFUM Oslo 2+ goals

36%

KFUM Oslo 3+ goals

13%

Viking 1+ goals

75%

Viking 2+ goals

40%

Viking 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

KFUM Oslo (draw refunded)

46%

Viking (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KFUM Oslo at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.02 · 27 matches

Viking away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.08 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KFUM Oslo attack 1.42 + Viking defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.25

Viking attack 1.73 + KFUM Oslo defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

KFUM Oslo scores more

34%

level

26%

Viking scores more

40%

Viking at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

M. Roseth

Viking · D

8.3

Match Events

-5'

Bilal Njie

1'

D. Hickson↳ H. Hoseth

5'

D. SchneiderOwn goal

19'

S. Hestnes↳ M. Njie

46'

J. Bell← K. Askildsen

55'

Nicholas D'Agostino

60'

R. Alte← J. Hansen

60'

V. Berisha← N. D'Agostino

60'

P. Christiansen← E. Austbo

69'

Sverre Hakami Sandal

70'

B. Njie← J. Hjorth

70'

M. Tonnessen← B. Skaret

72'

Simen Hestnes

72'

H. J. Haugen← H. Heggheim

73'

M. Roseth

80'

T. Haltvik← H. Udahl

86'

M. Ndiaye← D. Hickson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KFUMViking

Overview

46%Possession54%

10Total Shots6

0.57Expected Goals (xG)0.55

4Corners6

15Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots6

4On Target3

1Off Target3

5Blocked0

8Inside Box5

2Outside Box1

Passing

46%Possession54%

461Total Passes540

344Accurate Passes426

75%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls11

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides3

Match Recap: KFUM Oslo vs Viking

KFUM Oslo and Viking drew 2-2 in Eliteserien on September 14, 2025.

Goals: D. Hickson (1'), D. Schneider (5' o.g.), S. Hestnes (19'), M. Roseth (73').

Viking controlled possession (54%) and registered 6 shots to 10.

The match was played at KFUM Arena in Oslo.

KFUM Oslo vs Viking — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: KFUM Oslo vs Viking