KFUM Oslo 1–2 Viking: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

KFUM Oslo

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Viking

P. Dahl 22'

H. Tangen 85'

S. Svendsen 81'

7/7/2024

Eliteserien · Round 13KFUM Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

KFUM Oslo34%

×Draw26%

Viking40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KFUM OsloExpected goals in this matchViking

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.38

KFUM Oslo

1.26

Viking

1.38

Viking creates 10% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 29 away

1.44

creates per match

1.73

1.03

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

KFUM Oslo

1.44

Viking

1.73

allows per match

KFUM Oslo

1.03

Viking

1.08

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

KFUM Oslo-0.15scores less

Viking+0.24scores more

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KFUM Oslo ↓

Viking →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

KFUM Oslo or draw

60%

KFUM Oslo or Viking

74%

Draw or Viking

66%

Winning margin

KFUM Oslo wins by 2+

15%

Viking wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

KFUM Oslo 1+ goals

72%

KFUM Oslo 2+ goals

36%

KFUM Oslo 3+ goals

13%

Viking 1+ goals

75%

Viking 2+ goals

40%

Viking 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

KFUM Oslo (draw refunded)

46%

Viking (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KFUM Oslo at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.03 · 28 matches

Viking away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.08 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KFUM Oslo attack 1.44 + Viking defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.26

Viking attack 1.73 + KFUM Oslo defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

KFUM Oslo scores more

34%

level

26%

Viking scores more

40%

Viking at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

G. Stensness

Viking · D

7.9

Match Events

22'

P. Dahl↳ J. Nuñez

25'

S. Svendsen← Z. Tripić

42'

Robin Rasch

46'

J. Urbančič← V. Vevatne

62'

R. Svindland← T. Haltvik

68'

H. Haugen← S. Bjørshol

68'

H. Tangen← P. Yazbek

71'

O. Okeke← P. Dahl

77'

Simen Hestnes

81'

S. Svendsen↳ H. Haugen

85'

H. Tangen↳ J. Urbančič

88'

M. Ndiaye← Momodou Njie

88'

J. Hjorth← D. Hickson

90+4'

D. Diop← P. Christiansen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KFUMViking

Overview

44%Possession56%

6Total Shots10

5Corners4

19Fouls11

Shots

6Total Shots10

3On Target3

2Off Target4

1Blocked3

4Inside Box5

2Outside Box5

Passing

44%Possession56%

434Total Passes563

335Accurate Passes459

77%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

19Fouls11

2Yellow Cards0

2Offsides2