VfL Bochum 0–1 Fortuna Düsseldorf: Result & Stats

VfL Bochum

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Fortuna Düsseldorf

T. Oberdorf 4'

9/27/2025

2. Bundesliga · Round 7Vonovia Ruhrstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

VfL Bochum52%

×Draw23%

Fortuna Düsseldorf25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VfL BochumExpected goals in this matchFortuna Düsseldorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.21

VfL Bochum

1.82

Fortuna Düsseldorf

1.21

VfL Bochum creates 50% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

2.01

creates per match

1.13

1.28

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

VfL Bochum

2.01

Fortuna Düsseldorf

1.13

allows per match

VfL Bochum

1.28

Fortuna Düsseldorf

1.64

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

-0.88scores less than expected

finishing

VfL Bochum-0.28scores less

Fortuna Düsseldorf-0.88scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Bochum ↓

Fortuna Düsseldorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

VfL Bochum or draw

75%

VfL Bochum or Fortuna Düsseldorf

77%

Draw or Fortuna Düsseldorf

48%

Winning margin

VfL Bochum wins by 2+

29%

Fortuna Düsseldorf wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

VfL Bochum 1+ goals

84%

VfL Bochum 2+ goals

54%

VfL Bochum 3+ goals

27%

Fortuna Düsseldorf 1+ goals

70%

Fortuna Düsseldorf 2+ goals

34%

Fortuna Düsseldorf 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

VfL Bochum (draw refunded)

67%

Fortuna Düsseldorf (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Bochum at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.28 · 11 matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.64 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Bochum attack 2.01 + Fortuna Düsseldorf defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.82

Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.13 + VfL Bochum defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

VfL Bochum scores more

52%

level

23%

Fortuna Düsseldorf scores more

25%

VfL Bochum at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "VfL Bochum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

T. Oberdorf

Fortuna Düsseldorf · D

8.3

Match Events

-5'

Kjell Wätjen

4'

T. Oberdorf↳ C. Itten

66'

F. Onyeka← K. Watjen

71'

Jesper Daland

72'

M. Zimmermann← E. Iyoha

72'

J. Hettwer← V. Lunddal

74'

Maximilian Wittek

75'

M. Clairicia← P. Hofmann

75'

F. Alfa-Ruprecht← G. Holtmann

84'

J. de Wijs← S. Alexandropoulos

86'

88'

89'

90+5'

90+5'

90+3'

90+6'

90+6'

D. Schmidt← F. Muslija

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VfLFortuna

Overview

65%Possession35%

23Total Shots7

4Corners3

15Fouls14

Shots

23Total Shots7

4On Target3

11Off Target2

8Blocked2

17Inside Box5

6Outside Box2

Passing

65%Possession35%

561Total Passes305

491Accurate Passes213

88%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls14

5Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1

Match Recap: VfL Bochum vs Fortuna Düsseldorf

Fortuna Düsseldorf beat VfL Bochum 1-0 in 2. Bundesliga on September 27, 2025.

Goals: T. Oberdorf (4').

VfL Bochum controlled possession (65%) and registered 23 shots to 7.

The match was played at Vonovia Ruhrstadion in Bochum.

VfL Bochum vs Fortuna Düsseldorf — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: VfL Bochum vs Fortuna Düsseldorf