Fortuna Düsseldorf 2–1 VfL Bochum: Result & Stats

Fortuna Düsseldorf

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

VfL Bochum

F. Muslija 57'

C. Itten 45'

F. Alfa-Ruprecht 79'

2/27/2026

2. Bundesliga · Round 24Merkur Spiel-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf43%

×Draw25%

VfL Bochum32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna DüsseldorfExpected goals in this matchVfL Bochum

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.30

Fortuna Düsseldorf

1.54

VfL Bochum

1.30

Fortuna Düsseldorf creates 18% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

1.14

creates per match

1.29

1.31

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf

1.14

VfL Bochum

1.29

allows per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf

1.31

VfL Bochum

1.95

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Fortuna Düsseldorf+0.28scores more

VfL Bochum-0.09on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Düsseldorf ↓

VfL Bochum →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Fortuna Düsseldorf or draw

68%

Fortuna Düsseldorf or VfL Bochum

75%

Draw or VfL Bochum

57%

Winning margin

Fortuna Düsseldorf wins by 2+

21%

VfL Bochum wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Fortuna Düsseldorf 1+ goals

79%

Fortuna Düsseldorf 2+ goals

45%

Fortuna Düsseldorf 3+ goals

20%

VfL Bochum 1+ goals

73%

VfL Bochum 2+ goals

37%

VfL Bochum 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Düsseldorf (draw refunded)

57%

VfL Bochum (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Düsseldorf at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.31 · 12 matches

VfL Bochum away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.95 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.14 + VfL Bochum defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.54

VfL Bochum attack 1.29 + Fortuna Düsseldorf defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Fortuna Düsseldorf scores more

43%

level

25%

VfL Bochum scores more

32%

Fortuna Düsseldorf at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Fortuna Düsseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

F. Muslija

Fortuna Düsseldorf · M

8.9

Match Events

20'

F. Muslija← V. Lunddal

45'

C. Itten↳ E. Iyoha

46'

M. Kwarteng← G. Holtmann

46'

F. Onyeka← M. Pannewig

57'

F. Muslija↳ C. Rasmussen

61'

M. Bero← C. Marshall

61'

F. Alfa-Ruprecht← K. Miyoshi

66'

Moritz-Broni Kwarteng

69'

M. Ljubicic← C. Rasmussen

76'

O. Olsen← M. Rakneberg

79'

F. Alfa-Ruprecht↳ O. Olsen

86'

M. Zimmermann← E. Iyoha

86'

S. Alexandropoulos← S. Appelkamp

90+2'

Anouar El Azzouzi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FortunaVfL

Overview

55%Possession45%

20Total Shots10

1.71Expected Goals (xG)1.32

10Corners3

10Fouls13

Shots

20Total Shots10

9On Target3

7Off Target5

4Blocked2

14Inside Box9

6Outside Box1

Passing

55%Possession45%

452Total Passes367

372Accurate Passes290

82%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

0.36Goals Prevented0.36

Discipline

10Fouls13

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0