Vfl Bochum 5–0 Fortuna Dusseldorf: Result & Stats

Vfl Bochum

FT

5 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Fortuna Dusseldorf

M. Pantović 90+2'

R. Zulj 74', 72'

R. Tesche 58'

D. Blum 6' (pen)

11/30/2020

2. Bundesliga · Round 9Vonovia Ruhrstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Vfl Bochum52%

×Draw23%

Fortuna Dusseldorf25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vfl BochumExpected goals in this matchFortuna Dusseldorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.21

Vfl Bochum

1.82

Fortuna Dusseldorf

1.21

Vfl Bochum creates 50% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

2.01

creates per match

1.13

1.28

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Vfl Bochum

2.01

Fortuna Dusseldorf

1.13

allows per match

Vfl Bochum

1.28

Fortuna Dusseldorf

1.64

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

-0.88scores less than expected

finishing

Vfl Bochum-0.28scores less

Fortuna Dusseldorf-0.88scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vfl Bochum ↓

Fortuna Dusseldorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Vfl Bochum or draw

75%

Vfl Bochum or Fortuna Dusseldorf

77%

Draw or Fortuna Dusseldorf

48%

Winning margin

Vfl Bochum wins by 2+

29%

Fortuna Dusseldorf wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Vfl Bochum 1+ goals

84%

Vfl Bochum 2+ goals

54%

Vfl Bochum 3+ goals

27%

Fortuna Dusseldorf 1+ goals

70%

Fortuna Dusseldorf 2+ goals

34%

Fortuna Dusseldorf 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Vfl Bochum (draw refunded)

67%

Fortuna Dusseldorf (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vfl Bochum at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.28 · 11 matches

Fortuna Dusseldorf away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.64 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vfl Bochum attack 2.01 + Fortuna Dusseldorf defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.82

Fortuna Dusseldorf attack 1.13 + Vfl Bochum defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Vfl Bochum scores more

52%

level

23%

Fortuna Dusseldorf scores more

25%

Vfl Bochum at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Vfl Bochum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

R. Zulj

Vfl Bochum · M

8.5

Match Events

4'

Danny BlumGoal cancelled

5'

Kristoffer Peterson

6'

D. BlumPenalty

45'

56'

58'

61'

64'

J. Piotrowski← A. Bodzek

64'

B. Borello← R. Hennings

64'

D. Kownacki← E. Prib

68'

S. Ganvoula← G. Holtmann

72'

R. Zulj↳ S. Zoller

74'

A. Morales← S. Appelkamp

74'

R. Zulj↳ S. Zoller

77'

H. Bockhorn← S. Zoller

77'

77'

81'

83'

84'

E. Mašović← R. Tesche

90+2'

M. Pantović↳ H. Bockhorn

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VflFortuna

Overview

71%Possession29%

16Total Shots7

6Corners3

12Fouls7

Shots

16Total Shots7

9On Target0

4Off Target4

3Blocked3

9Inside Box3

7Outside Box4

Passing

71%Possession29%

573Total Passes222

488Accurate Passes142

85%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls7

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

7Offsides0