Fortuna Dusseldorf 0–3 Vfl Bochum: Result & Stats

Fortuna Dusseldorf

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Vfl Bochum

S. Novothny 87'

G. Holtmann 35'

S. Zoller 12'

3/22/2021

2. Bundesliga · Round 26Merkur Spiel-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Fortuna Dusseldorf43%

×Draw25%

Vfl Bochum32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna DusseldorfExpected goals in this matchVfl Bochum

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.30

Fortuna Dusseldorf

1.54

Vfl Bochum

1.30

Fortuna Dusseldorf creates 18% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

1.14

creates per match

1.29

1.31

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Fortuna Dusseldorf

1.14

Vfl Bochum

1.29

allows per match

Fortuna Dusseldorf

1.31

Vfl Bochum

1.95

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Fortuna Dusseldorf+0.28scores more

Vfl Bochum-0.09on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Dusseldorf ↓

Vfl Bochum →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Fortuna Dusseldorf or draw

68%

Fortuna Dusseldorf or Vfl Bochum

75%

Draw or Vfl Bochum

57%

Winning margin

Fortuna Dusseldorf wins by 2+

21%

Vfl Bochum wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Fortuna Dusseldorf 1+ goals

79%

Fortuna Dusseldorf 2+ goals

45%

Fortuna Dusseldorf 3+ goals

20%

Vfl Bochum 1+ goals

73%

Vfl Bochum 2+ goals

37%

Vfl Bochum 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Dusseldorf (draw refunded)

57%

Vfl Bochum (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Dusseldorf at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.31 · 12 matches

Vfl Bochum away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.95 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Dusseldorf attack 1.14 + Vfl Bochum defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.54

Vfl Bochum attack 1.29 + Fortuna Dusseldorf defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Fortuna Dusseldorf scores more

43%

level

25%

Vfl Bochum scores more

32%

Fortuna Dusseldorf at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Fortuna Dusseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

G. Holtmann

Vfl Bochum · M

8.3

Match Events

12'

S. Zoller↳ G. Holtmann

35'

G. Holtmann↳ R. Zulj

59'

F. Klaus← J. Piotrowski

59'

A. Morales← A. Bodzek

59'

M. Pantović← H. Bockhorn

62'

Alfredo Morales

68'

T. Eisfeld← R. Tesche

71'

B. Borello← K. Peterson

71'

E. Prib← M. Sobottka

76'

Danilo Soares

82'

S. Novothny← S. Zoller

87'

S. Novothny

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FortunaVfl

Overview

42%Possession58%

18Total Shots13

4Corners4

6Fouls15

Shots

18Total Shots13

4On Target7

7Off Target5

7Blocked1

14Inside Box9

4Outside Box4

Passing

42%Possession58%

356Total Passes504

260Accurate Passes409

73%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

6Fouls15

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides5