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Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Vfl Bochum — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Fortuna Dusseldorf
Fortuna Dusseldorf
FT
1 – 0
Vfl Bochum
Vfl Bochum
8/22/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Merkur Spiel-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Fortuna Dusseldorf34%
×Draw26%
Vfl Bochum40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.31
Vfl Bochum
1.44

Vfl Bochum creates 10% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.50
Vfl Bochum
1.89

allows per match

Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.00
Vfl Bochum
1.11

finishing

Fortuna Dusseldorf+0.00on par
Vfl Bochum+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Dusseldorf ↓

Vfl Bochum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Fortuna Dusseldorf or draw
60%
Fortuna Dusseldorf or Vfl Bochum
74%
Draw or Vfl Bochum
66%

Winning margin

Fortuna Dusseldorf wins by 2+
15%
Vfl Bochum wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Fortuna Dusseldorf 1+ goals
73%
Fortuna Dusseldorf 2+ goals
38%
Fortuna Dusseldorf 3+ goals
14%
Vfl Bochum 1+ goals
76%
Vfl Bochum 2+ goals
42%
Vfl Bochum 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Dusseldorf (draw refunded)
46%
Vfl Bochum (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Dusseldorf at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Vfl Bochum away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Dusseldorf attack 1.50 + Vfl Bochum defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.31

Vfl Bochum attack 1.89 + Fortuna Dusseldorf defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fortuna Dusseldorf scores more
34%
level
26%
Vfl Bochum scores more
40%

Vfl Bochum at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vfl Bochum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Fortuna Dusseldorf 1–0 Vfl Bochum

Fortuna Dusseldorf beat Vfl Bochum 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on August 22, 2020.

The match was played at Merkur Spiel-Arena in Düsseldorf.