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Vfl Bochum vs FC Magdeburg — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Vfl Bochum
Vfl Bochum
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
FC Magdeburg
FC Magdeburg
T. Weilandt 84', 61'
D. Baumgartner 50'
S. Ganvoula 42'
C. Beck 87'
M. Bülter 64'
5/4/20192. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 32Vonovia Ruhrstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Vfl Bochum47%
×Draw22%
FC Magdeburg31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vfl Bochum
1.98
FC Magdeburg
1.59

Vfl Bochum creates 25% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

creates per match

Vfl Bochum
2.01
FC Magdeburg
1.91

allows per match

Vfl Bochum
1.28
FC Magdeburg
1.95

finishing

Vfl Bochum-0.28scores less
FC Magdeburg+0.01on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vfl Bochum ↓

FC Magdeburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Vfl Bochum or draw
69%
Vfl Bochum or FC Magdeburg
78%
Draw or FC Magdeburg
53%

Winning margin

Vfl Bochum wins by 2+
26%
FC Magdeburg wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Vfl Bochum 1+ goals
86%
Vfl Bochum 2+ goals
59%
Vfl Bochum 3+ goals
31%
FC Magdeburg 1+ goals
80%
FC Magdeburg 2+ goals
47%
FC Magdeburg 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Vfl Bochum (draw refunded)
60%
FC Magdeburg (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vfl Bochum at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.28 · 11 matches

FC Magdeburg away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.95 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vfl Bochum attack 2.01 + FC Magdeburg defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.98

FC Magdeburg attack 1.91 + Vfl Bochum defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Vfl Bochum scores more
47%
level
22%
FC Magdeburg scores more
31%

Vfl Bochum at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Vfl Bochum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
T. WeilandtVfl BochumVfl Bochum · M
8.3

Match Events

18'
Anthony Losilla
42'
S. Ganvoula↳ L. Hinterseer
46'
T. Hoogland← P. Fabian
50'
D. Baumgartner↳ M. Pantović
52'
Aleksandar Ignjovski
59'
Charles Elie Laprevotte
59'
T. Weilandt← M. Pantović
61'
T. Weilandt↳ A. Losilla
62'
Dennis Erdmann
62'
S. Lewerenz← F. Lohkemper
62'
M. Osei-Kwadwo← A. Ignjovski
64'
M. Bülter↳ T. Chahed
70'
R. Weil← C. Laprevotte
77'
G. Sağlam← L. Hinterseer
84'
T. Weilandt↳ J. Bandowski
87'
C. Beck↳ N. Hammann
90'
Silvère Ganvoula

Possession

47%Vfl

Shots

16Vfl

Pass accuracy

50%Vfl

Statistics

VflFC
Overview
47%Possession53%
16Total Shots18
2Corners10
10Fouls8
Shots
16Total Shots18
7On Target8
5Off Target8
4Blocked2
10Inside Box13
6Outside Box5
Passing
47%Possession53%
359Total Passes383
268Accurate Passes288
75%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls8
2Yellow Cards3
3Offsides5

Match Recap: Vfl Bochum vs FC Magdeburg

Vfl Bochum beat FC Magdeburg 4-2 in 2. Bundesliga on May 4, 2019.

Goals: S. Ganvoula (42'), D. Baumgartner (50'), T. Weilandt (61', 84'), M. Bülter (64'), C. Beck (87').

FC Magdeburg controlled possession (53%) and registered 18 shots to 16.

The match was played at Vonovia Ruhrstadion in Bochum.