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FC Magdeburg vs Vfl Bochum — 2. Bundesliga 2018

FC Magdeburg
FC Magdeburg
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vfl Bochum
Vfl Bochum
12/2/20182. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 15MDCC-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

FC Magdeburg52%
×Draw23%
Vfl Bochum25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Magdeburg
1.79
Vfl Bochum
1.17

FC Magdeburg creates 53% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

creates per match

FC Magdeburg
1.64
Vfl Bochum
1.29

allows per match

FC Magdeburg
1.05
Vfl Bochum
1.95

finishing

FC Magdeburg-0.31scores less
Vfl Bochum-0.09on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Magdeburg ↓

Vfl Bochum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

FC Magdeburg or draw
75%
FC Magdeburg or Vfl Bochum
77%
Draw or Vfl Bochum
48%

Winning margin

FC Magdeburg wins by 2+
29%
Vfl Bochum wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FC Magdeburg 1+ goals
83%
FC Magdeburg 2+ goals
53%
FC Magdeburg 3+ goals
26%
Vfl Bochum 1+ goals
69%
Vfl Bochum 2+ goals
33%
Vfl Bochum 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FC Magdeburg (draw refunded)
68%
Vfl Bochum (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Magdeburg at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.05 · 12 matches

Vfl Bochum away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.95 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Magdeburg attack 1.64 + Vfl Bochum defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.79

Vfl Bochum attack 1.29 + FC Magdeburg defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

FC Magdeburg scores more
52%
level
23%
Vfl Bochum scores more
25%

FC Magdeburg at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FC Magdeburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
M. RiemannVfl BochumVfl Bochum · G
7.6

Match Events

32'
Lee Chung-yong
33'
Anthony Losilla
51'
Charles Elie Laprevotte
77'
R. Preißinger← R. Weil
80'
S. Ganvoula← S. Sam
84'
Robert Tesche
84'
M. Costly← F. Lohkemper
88'
Jan Gyamerah
90+2'
M. Berisha← P. Türpitz

Possession

39%FC

Shots

14FC

Pass accuracy

44%FC

Statistics

FCVfl
Overview
39%Possession61%
14Total Shots9
5Corners8
19Fouls15
Shots
14Total Shots9
3On Target1
7Off Target5
4Blocked3
5Inside Box6
9Outside Box3
Passing
39%Possession61%
307Total Passes461
178Accurate Passes336
58%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
19Fouls15
1Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards0
0Offsides3

2. Bundesliga: FC Magdeburg 0–0 Vfl Bochum

FC Magdeburg and Vfl Bochum drew 0-0 in 2. Bundesliga on December 2, 2018.

Vfl Bochum controlled possession (61%) and registered 9 shots to 14.

The match was played at MDCC-Arena in Magdeburg.