VfL Bochum 2–0 1. FC Magdeburg: Result & Stats

VfL Bochum

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

1. FC Magdeburg

G. Holtmann 60'

K. Watjen 41'

11/2/2025

2. Bundesliga · Round 11Vonovia Ruhrstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

VfL Bochum47%

×Draw22%

1. FC Magdeburg31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VfL BochumExpected goals in this match1. FC Magdeburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.59

VfL Bochum

1.98

1. FC Magdeburg

1.59

VfL Bochum creates 25% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

2.01

creates per match

1.91

1.28

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

VfL Bochum

2.01

1. FC Magdeburg

1.91

allows per match

VfL Bochum

1.28

1. FC Magdeburg

1.95

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

VfL Bochum-0.28scores less

1. FC Magdeburg+0.01on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Bochum ↓

1. FC Magdeburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

VfL Bochum or draw

69%

VfL Bochum or 1. FC Magdeburg

78%

Draw or 1. FC Magdeburg

53%

Winning margin

VfL Bochum wins by 2+

26%

1. FC Magdeburg wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

VfL Bochum 1+ goals

86%

VfL Bochum 2+ goals

59%

VfL Bochum 3+ goals

31%

1. FC Magdeburg 1+ goals

80%

1. FC Magdeburg 2+ goals

47%

1. FC Magdeburg 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

VfL Bochum (draw refunded)

60%

1. FC Magdeburg (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Bochum at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.28 · 11 matches

1. FC Magdeburg away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.95 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Bochum attack 2.01 + 1. FC Magdeburg defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.98

1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.91 + VfL Bochum defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

VfL Bochum scores more

47%

level

22%

1. FC Magdeburg scores more

31%

VfL Bochum at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "VfL Bochum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

T. Horn

VfL Bochum · G

10.0

Match Events

36'

Philipp Hercher

39'

M. Geschwill← T. Muller

41'

54'

60'

60'

61'

R. Ghrieb← P. Hercher

62'

A. Holmstrom← M. Breunig

62'

C. Krempicki← M. Mathisen

70'

M. Bero← G. Holtmann

71'

P. Hofmann← F. Onyeka

78'

Barış Atik

79'

Alexander NollenbergerPenalty confirmed

82'

M. Kwarteng← F. Alfa-Ruprecht

82'

F. Passlack← K. Watjen

84'

84'

90+5'

90+7'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VfL1.

Overview

36%Possession64%

24Total Shots16

3.32Expected Goals (xG)2.11

8Corners7

10Fouls5

Shots

24Total Shots16

9On Target6

8Off Target7

7Blocked3

21Inside Box9

3Outside Box7

Passing

36%Possession64%

277Total Passes503

200Accurate Passes435

72%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

6Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls5

2Yellow Cards4

0Offsides1

Match Recap: VfL Bochum vs 1. FC Magdeburg

VfL Bochum beat 1. FC Magdeburg 2-0 in 2. Bundesliga on November 2, 2025.

Goals: K. Watjen (41'), G. Holtmann (60').

1. FC Magdeburg controlled possession (64%) and registered 16 shots to 24.

The match was played at Vonovia Ruhrstadion in Bochum.

VfL Bochum vs 1. FC Magdeburg — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: VfL Bochum vs 1. FC Magdeburg