1. FC Magdeburg 4–1 VfL Bochum: Result & Stats

1. FC Magdeburg

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

VfL Bochum

M. Zukowski 73', 71'

B. Atik 44'

L. Musonda 7'

P. Hofmann 56'

4/4/2026

2. Bundesliga · Round 28Avnet-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

1. FC Magdeburg52%

×Draw23%

VfL Bochum25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1. FC MagdeburgExpected goals in this matchVfL Bochum

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.17

1. FC Magdeburg

1.79

VfL Bochum

1.17

1. FC Magdeburg creates 53% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

1.64

creates per match

1.29

1.05

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

1. FC Magdeburg

1.64

VfL Bochum

1.29

allows per match

1. FC Magdeburg

1.05

VfL Bochum

1.95

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

1. FC Magdeburg-0.31scores less

VfL Bochum-0.09on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Magdeburg ↓

VfL Bochum →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

1. FC Magdeburg or draw

75%

1. FC Magdeburg or VfL Bochum

77%

Draw or VfL Bochum

48%

Winning margin

1. FC Magdeburg wins by 2+

29%

VfL Bochum wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

1. FC Magdeburg 1+ goals

83%

1. FC Magdeburg 2+ goals

53%

1. FC Magdeburg 3+ goals

26%

VfL Bochum 1+ goals

69%

VfL Bochum 2+ goals

33%

VfL Bochum 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

1. FC Magdeburg (draw refunded)

68%

VfL Bochum (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Magdeburg at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.05 · 12 matches

VfL Bochum away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.95 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.64 + VfL Bochum defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.79

VfL Bochum attack 1.29 + 1. FC Magdeburg defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

1. FC Magdeburg scores more

52%

level

23%

VfL Bochum scores more

25%

1. FC Magdeburg at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "1. FC Magdeburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

B. Atik

1. FC Magdeburg · M

9.5

Match Events

7'

L. Musonda↳ H. Bockhorn

32'

O. Olsen← L. Morgalla

44'

B. Atik↳ M. Mathisen

46'

C. Marshall← K. Watjen

53'

Oliver Olsen

56'

P. Hofmann↳ K. Miyoshi

65'

Maximilian Wittek

68'

Koji Miyoshi

69'

G. Holtmann← F. Alfa-Ruprecht

71'

M. Zukowski↳ B. Atik

73'

M. Zukowski↳ R. Tachie

74'

M. Kwarteng← K. Miyoshi

74'

K. Koscierski← M. Wittek

76'

C. Krempicki← S. Gnaka

76'

J. Hugonet← L. Musonda

77'

D. Stalmach← R. Tachie

79'

Mateusz Żukowski

84'

N. Pesch← B. Atik

88'

E. Dzogovic← H. Bockhorn

90'

Noah Pesch

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

1.VfL

Overview

53%Possession47%

12Total Shots18

2.10Expected Goals (xG)1.15

4Corners3

9Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots18

6On Target6

6Off Target7

0Blocked5

10Inside Box14

2Outside Box4

Passing

53%Possession47%

485Total Passes418

420Accurate Passes343

87%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

-1.53Goals Prevented-1.53

Discipline

9Fouls11

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0

Match Recap: 1. FC Magdeburg vs VfL Bochum

1. FC Magdeburg beat VfL Bochum 4-1 in 2. Bundesliga on April 4, 2026.

Goals: L. Musonda (7'), B. Atik (44'), P. Hofmann (56'), M. Zukowski (71', 73').

1. FC Magdeburg controlled possession (53%) and registered 12 shots to 18.

The match was played at Avnet-Arena in Magdeburg.

1. FC Magdeburg vs VfL Bochum — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: 1. FC Magdeburg vs VfL Bochum