1. FC Magdeburg 1–1 VfL Bochum: Result & Stats

1. FC Magdeburg

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

VfL Bochum

M. Kaars 30'

M. Broschinski 7'

7/20/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Platz 2 MCDD-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

1. FC Magdeburg32%

×Draw21%

VfL Bochum47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1. FC MagdeburgExpected goals in this matchVfL Bochum

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

2.13

1. FC Magdeburg

1.73

VfL Bochum

2.13

VfL Bochum creates 23% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

2.36

creates per match

1.89

2.36

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

1. FC Magdeburg

2.36

VfL Bochum

1.89

allows per match

1. FC Magdeburg

2.36

VfL Bochum

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

1. FC Magdeburg+0.00on par

VfL Bochum+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Magdeburg ↓

VfL Bochum →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

1. FC Magdeburg or draw

53%

1. FC Magdeburg or VfL Bochum

79%

Draw or VfL Bochum

68%

Winning margin

1. FC Magdeburg wins by 2+

16%

VfL Bochum wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

1. FC Magdeburg 1+ goals

82%

1. FC Magdeburg 2+ goals

52%

1. FC Magdeburg 3+ goals

25%

VfL Bochum 1+ goals

88%

VfL Bochum 2+ goals

63%

VfL Bochum 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

1. FC Magdeburg (draw refunded)

40%

VfL Bochum (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Magdeburg at home — creates 2.36, concedes 2.36 · 11 matches

VfL Bochum away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Magdeburg attack 2.36 + VfL Bochum defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.73

VfL Bochum attack 1.89 + 1. FC Magdeburg defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

1. FC Magdeburg scores more

32%

level

21%

VfL Bochum scores more

47%

VfL Bochum at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "VfL Bochum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

M. Broschinski

30'

M. Kaars

46'

M. Broschinski← P. Hofmann

46'

S. Bamba← L. Daschner

46'

G. Holtmann← M. Pannewig

46'

A. Elezi← N. Jahn

46'

L. Koerdt← I. Sissoko

46'

A. Losilla← D. de Wit

46'

Bernardo← M. Wittek

46'

E. Masovic← I. Ordets

46'

T. Oermann← N. Loosli

46'

C. Gamboa← F. Passlack

68'

P. Hercher← H. Bockhorn

68'

D. Heber← T. Muller

68'

M. Mathisen← A. Hoti

68'

A. El-Zein← C. Krempicki

68'

T. Ito← A. Nollenberger

79'

L. Musonda← R. Leipertz

83'

M. Pannewig← J. Osei-Tutu

1.3-4-3

VfL3-4-1-2

18

Bamba

29

⚽

28

21

8

17

2

5

14

4

23

1

19

16

15

14

24

25

27

23

9

⚽

Kaars

37

Ito

Manager: C. Titz

68'▲P. Hercher←▼H. Bockhorn

68'▲D. Heber←▼T. Muller

68'▲M. Mathisen←▼A. Hoti

68'▲A. El-Zein←▼C. Krempicki

68'▲T. Ito←▼A. Nollenberger

79'▲L. Musonda←▼R. Leipertz

1. FC Magdeburg substitutes

30Kruth3Hoti4Džogović5Müller7Bockhorn13Krempicki31Leipertz17Nollenberger18Kuhinja

Manager: H. Butscher

46'▲M. Broschinski←▼P. Hofmann

46'▲S. Bamba←▼L. Daschner

46'▲G. Holtmann←▼M. Pannewig

46'▲A. Elezi←▼N. Jahn

46'▲L. Koerdt←▼I. Sissoko

46'▲A. Losilla←▼D. de Wit

46'▲Bernardo←▼M. Wittek

46'▲E. Masovic←▼I. Ordets

46'▲T. Oermann←▼N. Loosli

46'▲C. Gamboa←▼F. Passlack

83'▲M. Pannewig←▼J. Osei-Tutu

VfL Bochum substitutes

20Ordets41Loosli6Sissoko10Wit15Passlack13Daschner16Jahn32Wittek24Pannewig33Hofmann34Grave47Osei-Tutu

Match Recap: 1. FC Magdeburg vs VfL Bochum

1. FC Magdeburg and VfL Bochum drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 20, 2024.

Goals: M. Broschinski (7'), M. Kaars (30').

The match was played at Platz 2 MCDD-Arena in Magdeburg.

1. FC Magdeburg vs VfL Bochum — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: 1. FC Magdeburg vs VfL Bochum