Vasco DA Gama 2–2 Ceara: Result & Stats | Serie A

Vasco DA Gama

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Ceara

C. Cuesta 80'

Coutinho 12'

Pedro Henrique 90'

A. Galeano 16'

9/14/2025

Serie A · Round 23Estádio São Januário

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Vasco DA Gama40%

×Draw28%

Ceara33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vasco DA GamaExpected goals in this matchCeara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.12

Vasco DA Gama

1.27

Ceara

1.12

Vasco DA Gama creates 13% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 23 away

1.45

creates per match

0.91

1.33

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Vasco DA Gama

1.45

Ceara

0.91

allows per match

Vasco DA Gama

1.33

Ceara

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vasco DA Gama+0.00on par

Ceara+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasco DA Gama ↓

Ceara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Vasco DA Gama or draw

67%

Vasco DA Gama or Ceara

72%

Draw or Ceara

60%

Winning margin

Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+

18%

Ceara wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals

72%

Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals

36%

Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals

14%

Ceara 1+ goals

67%

Ceara 2+ goals

31%

Ceara 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)

55%

Ceara (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasco DA Gama at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.33 · 42 matches

Ceara away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.09 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasco DA Gama attack 1.45 + Ceara defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.27

Ceara attack 0.91 + Vasco DA Gama defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vasco DA Gama scores more

40%

level

28%

Ceara scores more

33%

Vasco DA Gama at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vasco DA Gama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Coutinho

Vasco DA Gama · M

8.0

Match Events

12'

Coutinho

16'

A. Galeano

26'

Richardson

46'

C. A. Gomez← Mateus Carvalho

57'

Cauan Barros

64'

Rodriguinho← Lourenco

65'

Lucas Freitas

65'

C. Cuesta← Lucas Freitas

72'

Rodriguinho

78'

Fernandinho← Paulo Baya

78'

Fernando Sobral← Richardson

79'

David← Cauan Barros

80'

C. Cuesta↳ C. A. Gomez

84'

Pedro Henrique← Pedro Raul

84'

Vina← A. Galeano

86'

Lucas Oliveira← Coutinho

86'

Paulinho Paula← N. Moreira

90+7'

Andrés Gómez

90+2'

Fabiano Souza

90'

Pedro Henrique

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VascoCeara

Overview

63%Possession37%

16Total Shots12

0.92Expected Goals (xG)1.46

3Corners3

19Fouls10

Shots

16Total Shots12

5On Target7

8Off Target5

3Blocked0

10Inside Box8

6Outside Box4

Passing

63%Possession37%

506Total Passes294

458Accurate Passes233

91%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

-0.03Goals Prevented-0.03

Discipline

19Fouls10

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Vasco DA Gama vs Ceara

Vasco DA Gama and Ceara drew 2-2 in Serie A on September 14, 2025.

Goals: Coutinho (12'), A. Galeano (16'), C. Cuesta (80'), Pedro Henrique (90').

Vasco DA Gama controlled possession (63%) and registered 16 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estádio São Januário in Rio de Janeiro.

Vasco DA Gama vs Ceara — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Vasco DA Gama vs Ceara