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Ceara vs Vasco DA Gama — Serie A 2026

Ceara
Ceara
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Vasco DA Gama
Vasco DA Gama
Pedro Raul 81', 29'
P. Vegetti 90'
4/16/2025Serie ASerie A · Round 4Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Ceara45%
×Draw27%
Vasco DA Gama28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceara
1.39
Vasco DA Gama
1.03

Ceara creates 35% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 39 away

creates per match

Ceara
1.00
Vasco DA Gama
1.10

allows per match

Ceara
0.96
Vasco DA Gama
1.77

finishing

Ceara+0.00on par
Vasco DA Gama+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceara ↓

Vasco DA Gama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ceara or draw
72%
Ceara or Vasco DA Gama
73%
Draw or Vasco DA Gama
55%

Winning margin

Ceara wins by 2+
22%
Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ceara 1+ goals
75%
Ceara 2+ goals
40%
Ceara 3+ goals
16%
Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals
64%
Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals
28%
Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ceara (draw refunded)
62%
Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceara at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.96 · 23 matches

Vasco DA Gama away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.77 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceara attack 1.00 + Vasco DA Gama defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.39

Vasco DA Gama attack 1.10 + Ceara defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ceara scores more
45%
level
27%
Vasco DA Gama scores more
28%

Ceara at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ceara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
Pedro RaulCearaCeara · F
9.0

Match Events

4'
Paulinho Paula
10'
Fabiano
29'
Pedro Raul↳ Lucas Mugni
31'
Paulo Henrique
34'
Hugo Moura
38'
A. Galeano
46'
Jair← Paulinho Paula
46'
Adson← B. Garre
46'
Rayan← N. Moreira
57'
Alex Teixeira← D. Payet
63'
Matheus Bahia
63'
P. Vegetti
64'
Fernando Miguel← Bruno Ferreira
70'
Leo Conde
71'
Matheus Araujo← Lucas Mugni
71'
Guilherme Luiz← Aylon
81'
Pedro Raul↳ Guilherme Luiz
90'
Romulo← Pedro Raul
90'
Lourenco← Diego
90+4'
Jean David← Lucas Freitas
90'
P. Vegetti↳ Rayan

Possession

36%Ceara

Shots

11Ceara

Pass accuracy

48%Ceara

Statistics

CearaVasco
Overview
36%Possession64%
11Total Shots11
2.14Expected Goals (xG)1.14
1Corners2
14Fouls12
Shots
11Total Shots11
2On Target3
7Off Target6
2Blocked2
7Inside Box8
4Outside Box3
Passing
36%Possession64%
335Total Passes618
271Accurate Passes550
81%Pass Accuracy89%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
-0.10Goals Prevented-0.10
Discipline
14Fouls12
3Yellow Cards4
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Ceara vs Vasco DA Gama

Ceara beat Vasco DA Gama 2-1 in Serie A on April 16, 2025.

Goals: Pedro Raul (29', 81'), P. Vegetti (90').

Vasco DA Gama controlled possession (64%) and registered 11 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Fortaleza.