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Ceara vs Vasco DA Gama — Serie A 2026

Ceara
Ceara
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Vasco DA Gama
Vasco DA Gama
Bergson 81'
Rossi 18'
10/26/2019Serie ASerie A · Round 28Estadio Castelão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Ceara43%
×Draw27%
Vasco DA Gama30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceara
1.37
Vasco DA Gama
1.10

Ceara creates 25% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 44 away

creates per match

Ceara
1.04
Vasco DA Gama
1.11

allows per match

Ceara
1.08
Vasco DA Gama
1.70

finishing

Ceara+0.00on par
Vasco DA Gama+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceara ↓

Vasco DA Gama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ceara or draw
70%
Ceara or Vasco DA Gama
73%
Draw or Vasco DA Gama
57%

Winning margin

Ceara wins by 2+
20%
Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ceara 1+ goals
75%
Ceara 2+ goals
40%
Ceara 3+ goals
16%
Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals
67%
Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals
30%
Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ceara (draw refunded)
59%
Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceara at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.08 · 26 matches

Vasco DA Gama away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.70 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceara attack 1.04 + Vasco DA Gama defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.37

Vasco DA Gama attack 1.11 + Ceara defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ceara scores more
43%
level
27%
Vasco DA Gama scores more
30%

Ceara at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ceara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
RossiVasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama · F
7.8

Match Events

18'
Rossi↳ Richard
26'
Bruno Gomes
33'
Raul← Bruno Gomes
45'
William Oliveira
46'
Leandro Carvalho← Ricardinho
46'
Bergson← Lima
46'
Felipe Ferreira← Marrony
48'
Richard
59'
Fellipe Bastos← F. Guarín
69'
Rossi
81'
Bergson
83'
Wescley← Willian Oliveira
88'
Leandro Carvalho
90'
Auremir

Possession

63%Ceara

Shots

17Ceara

Pass accuracy

52%Ceara

Statistics

CearaVasco
Overview
63%Possession37%
17Total Shots8
11Corners3
11Fouls14
Shots
17Total Shots8
4On Target3
9Off Target4
4Blocked1
10Inside Box5
7Outside Box3
Passing
63%Possession37%
545Total Passes316
462Accurate Passes243
85%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls14
3Yellow Cards3
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Ceara vs Vasco DA Gama

Ceara and Vasco DA Gama drew 1-1 in Serie A on October 26, 2019.

Goals: Rossi (18'), Bergson (81').

Ceara controlled possession (63%) and registered 17 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Castelão in Fortaleza.