Vasco DA Gama 1–4 Ceara: Result & Stats | Serie A

Vasco DA Gama

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Ceara

Ribamar 65' (pen)

Vinícius Goes 90' (pen)

Saulo Mineiro 79'

Cleber 26'

Pedro 4'

11/30/2020

Serie A · Round 23Estádio Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Vasco DA Gama42%

×Draw27%

Ceara31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vasco DA GamaExpected goals in this matchCeara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.11

Vasco DA Gama

1.35

Ceara

1.11

Vasco DA Gama creates 22% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 25 away

1.47

creates per match

0.92

1.30

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Vasco DA Gama

1.47

Ceara

0.92

allows per match

Vasco DA Gama

1.30

Ceara

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vasco DA Gama+0.00on par

Ceara+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasco DA Gama ↓

Ceara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Vasco DA Gama or draw

69%

Vasco DA Gama or Ceara

73%

Draw or Ceara

58%

Winning margin

Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+

20%

Ceara wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals

74%

Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals

39%

Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals

15%

Ceara 1+ goals

67%

Ceara 2+ goals

30%

Ceara 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)

58%

Ceara (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasco DA Gama at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.30 · 43 matches

Ceara away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.24 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasco DA Gama attack 1.47 + Ceara defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.35

Ceara attack 0.92 + Vasco DA Gama defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Vasco DA Gama scores more

42%

level

27%

Ceara scores more

31%

Vasco DA Gama at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Vasco DA Gama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

Vinícius Goes

Ceara · M

8.2

Match Events

-5'

4'

26'

29'

46'

Tiago Reis← Ricardo Graça

63'

Luiz Otávio

65'

RibamarPenalty

68'

Kelvyn← Leonardo Chú

68'

Saulo Mineiro← Cleber

69'

Cayo Tenório← Léo Matos

69'

M. Benítez← L. Gil

75'

Alyson← Bruno Pacheco

79'

80'

84'

87'

88'

90+4'

Ygor Catatau← Ribamar

90+1'

Wescley← Vinícius Goes

90+1'

Leandro Carvalho← Lima

90'

Vinícius GoesPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VascoCeara

Overview

68%Possession32%

12Total Shots11

9Corners3

15Fouls18

Shots

12Total Shots11

4On Target6

7Off Target4

1Blocked1

6Inside Box10

6Outside Box1

Passing

68%Possession32%

487Total Passes230

415Accurate Passes149

85%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls18

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides3

Match Recap: Vasco DA Gama vs Ceara

Ceara beat Vasco DA Gama 4-1 in Serie A on November 30, 2020.

Goals: Pedro (4'), Cleber (26'), Ribamar (65' pen), Saulo Mineiro (79'), Vinícius Goes (90' pen).

Vasco DA Gama controlled possession (68%) and registered 12 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estádio Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama in Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro.

Vasco DA Gama vs Ceara — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Vasco DA Gama vs Ceara