Ceara 0–3 Vasco DA Gama: Result & Stats | Serie A

Ceara

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Vasco DA Gama

Ribamar 90+5'

Fellipe Bastos 78'

G. Cano 68'

8/20/2020

Serie A · Round 4Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Ceara43%

×Draw27%

Vasco DA Gama30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CearaExpected goals in this matchVasco DA Gama

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.10

Ceara

1.37

Vasco DA Gama

1.10

Ceara creates 25% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 44 away

1.04

creates per match

1.11

1.08

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Ceara

1.04

Vasco DA Gama

1.11

allows per match

Ceara

1.08

Vasco DA Gama

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ceara+0.00on par

Vasco DA Gama+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceara ↓

Vasco DA Gama →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ceara or draw

70%

Ceara or Vasco DA Gama

73%

Draw or Vasco DA Gama

57%

Winning margin

Ceara wins by 2+

20%

Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Ceara 1+ goals

75%

Ceara 2+ goals

40%

Ceara 3+ goals

16%

Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals

67%

Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals

30%

Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ceara (draw refunded)

59%

Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceara at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.08 · 26 matches

Vasco DA Gama away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.70 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceara attack 1.04 + Vasco DA Gama defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.37

Vasco DA Gama attack 1.11 + Ceara defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ceara scores more

43%

level

27%

Vasco DA Gama scores more

30%

Ceara at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ceara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

36

Ricardo Graça

Vasco DA Gama · D

7.9

Match Events

30'

Fabinho← Charles

33'

44'

44'

45'

46'

Leandro Carvalho← Mateus Gonçalves

46'

Bruno Gomes← Neto Borges

60'

Henrique

61'

Leandro Carvalho

62'

Vinícius Goes← Ricardinho

62'

Vitor Jacaré← Lima

68'

G. Cano↳ Andrey

74'

Rafael Sóbis← Fernando Sobral

77'

Guilherme Parede← Andrey

78'

Fellipe Bastos

87'

Carlinhos← M. Benítez

87'

Miranda← Fellipe Bastos

90+3'

Ribamar← G. Cano

90+5'

Ribamar↳ Carlinhos

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CearaVasco

Overview

58%Possession42%

22Total Shots5

13Corners2

18Fouls14

Shots

22Total Shots5

2On Target4

9Off Target0

11Blocked1

10Inside Box3

12Outside Box2

Passing

58%Possession42%

479Total Passes361

411Accurate Passes293

86%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls14

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2