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UTS Rabat vs Olympique Khouribga — Botola Pro 2025

UTS Rabat
UTS Rabat
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Olympique Khouribga
Olympique Khouribga
1/26/2023Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 15Stade Prince Moulay El Hassan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

UTS Rabat43%
×Draw29%
Olympique Khouribga28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UTS Rabat
1.23
Olympique Khouribga
0.95

UTS Rabat creates 29% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 60 away

creates per match

UTS Rabat
1.12
Olympique Khouribga
0.82

allows per match

UTS Rabat
1.08
Olympique Khouribga
1.33

finishing

UTS Rabat+0.00on par
Olympique Khouribga+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UTS Rabat ↓

Olympique Khouribga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

UTS Rabat or draw
72%
UTS Rabat or Olympique Khouribga
71%
Draw or Olympique Khouribga
57%

Winning margin

UTS Rabat wins by 2+
19%
Olympique Khouribga wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

UTS Rabat 1+ goals
71%
UTS Rabat 2+ goals
35%
UTS Rabat 3+ goals
13%
Olympique Khouribga 1+ goals
61%
Olympique Khouribga 2+ goals
25%
Olympique Khouribga 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

UTS Rabat (draw refunded)
60%
Olympique Khouribga (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UTS Rabat at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.08 · 60 matches

Olympique Khouribga away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.33 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UTS Rabat attack 1.12 + Olympique Khouribga defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Olympique Khouribga attack 0.82 + UTS Rabat defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

UTS Rabat scores more
43%
level
29%
Olympique Khouribga scores more
28%

UTS Rabat at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "UTS Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: UTS Rabat 0–0 Olympique Khouribga

UTS Rabat and Olympique Khouribga drew 0-0 in Botola Pro on January 26, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Prince Moulay El Hassan in Rabat.