Olympique Khouribga 6–4 UTS Rabat: Result & Stats

Olympique Khouribga

FT

6 – 4

HT: 3 – 2

UTS Rabat

6/23/2023

Botola Pro · Round 30Stade du Phosphate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Olympique Khouribga40%

×Draw27%

UTS Rabat33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olympique KhouribgaExpected goals in this matchUTS Rabat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.15

Olympique Khouribga

1.29

UTS Rabat

1.15

Olympique Khouribga creates 12% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 61 away

1.23

creates per match

1.07

1.22

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Olympique Khouribga

1.23

UTS Rabat

1.07

allows per match

Olympique Khouribga

1.22

UTS Rabat

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olympique Khouribga+0.00on par

UTS Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Khouribga ↓

UTS Rabat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Olympique Khouribga or draw

67%

Olympique Khouribga or UTS Rabat

73%

Draw or UTS Rabat

60%

Winning margin

Olympique Khouribga wins by 2+

18%

UTS Rabat wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Olympique Khouribga 1+ goals

72%

Olympique Khouribga 2+ goals

37%

Olympique Khouribga 3+ goals

14%

UTS Rabat 1+ goals

68%

UTS Rabat 2+ goals

32%

UTS Rabat 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Olympique Khouribga (draw refunded)

55%

UTS Rabat (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Khouribga at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.22 · 60 matches

UTS Rabat away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.36 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Khouribga attack 1.23 + UTS Rabat defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.29

UTS Rabat attack 1.07 + Olympique Khouribga defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Olympique Khouribga scores more

40%

level

27%

UTS Rabat scores more

33%

Olympique Khouribga at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Olympique Khouribga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff